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Scénario pour un élargissement à l'Est de l'Union européenne


  • Sandrine Cazes
  • Bruno Coquet
  • Frédéric Lerais


[eng] Scenario for an eastern enlargement of the EU . An enlargement of the eu to Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECS), would constitute an unprecedented change : ceecs transitions are underway, and eu is currently facing major transformations, reforms, uncertainties and challenges. This paper intend to evaluate macroeconomic consequences of an enlargement, with the International Macroeconomic Model Mimosa. Our study shows that an eastern enlargement would have beneficial macroeconomic consequences relatively modest for the EU current members, but quite substantial for the newcomers. It appears that trade openness and financing are essential for the success of an enlargement process. An increase in Structural Funds currently allowed to the CEECS -relatively modest for the current eu members- would greatly foster more rapid and sustained growth in these countries, and in the rest of Europe, so that the additional transfers would soon be self-financing. This study shows that obstacles to enlargement process do not come from economic difficulties, but mainly stems from political and strategical issues. [fre] Cet article présente les conditions d'un élargissement à l'Est de l'Union européenne (UE) et la dynamique économique qui pourrait soutenir ce processus. Après une rapide revue des difficultés politiques et institutionnelles posées par l'intégration des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale (PECO), une évaluation du coût d'un tel processus est présentée. Enfin, un scénario d'intégration est simulé, qui montre des avantages importants pour les PECO sans coût net pour l'Union européenne.

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  • Sandrine Cazes & Bruno Coquet & Frédéric Lerais, 1997. "Scénario pour un élargissement à l'Est de l'Union européenne," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 240(1), pages 4-8.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:recoru:ecoru_0013-0559_1997_num_240_1_4872
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecoru.1997.4872

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Steven A. Symansky & Leonardo Bartolini, 1994. "Financing the Transition of Previously Centrally Planned Economies; Macroeconomic Effectson Western Europe," IMF Working Papers 94/157, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Gual, Jordi & Martín, Carmela, 1994. "Trade and Foreign Direct Investment with Central and Eastern Europe: Its Impact on Spain," CEPR Discussion Papers 1006, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Wang, Zhen Kun & Winters, L. Alan, 1991. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Neven, Damien, 1995. "Trade liberalisation with Eastern nations: Some distribution issues," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 622-632, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dieter Schumacher & Parvati Trübswetter, 2000. "Volume and Comparative Advantage in East-West Trade," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 223, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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