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Scénario pour un élargissement à l'Est de l'Union européenne

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  • Cazes, Sandrine
  • Coquet, Bruno
  • Lerais, Frédéric

Abstract

An enlargement of the eu to Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECS), would constitute an unprecedented change : ceecs transitions are underway, and eu is currently facing major transformations, reforms, uncertainties and challenges. This paper intend to evaluate macroeconomic consequences of an enlargement, with the International Macroeconomic Model Mimosa. Our study shows that an eastern enlargement would have beneficial macroeconomic consequences relatively modest for the EU current members, but quite substantial for the newcomers. It appears that trade openness and financing are essential for the success of an enlargement process. An increase in Structural Funds currently allowed to the CEECS -relatively modest for the current eu members- would greatly foster more rapid and sustained growth in these countries, and in the rest of Europe, so that the additional transfers would soon be self-financing. This study shows that obstacles to enlargement process do not come from economic difficulties, but mainly stems from political and strategical issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Cazes, Sandrine & Coquet, Bruno & Lerais, Frédéric, 1997. "Scénario pour un élargissement à l'Est de l'Union européenne," Économie rurale, French Society of Rural Economics (SFER Société Française d'Economie Rurale), vol. 240.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ersfer:354361
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.354361
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    1. Gual, Jordi & Martín, Carmela, 1994. "Trade and Foreign Direct Investment with Central and Eastern Europe: Its Impact on Spain," CEPR Discussion Papers 1006, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Jérôme Sgard, 1995. "Le financement de la transition en Europe centrale et balkanique," Post-Print hal-03585852, HAL.
    3. Wang, Zhen Kun & Winters, L. Alan, 1991. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Jérôme Sgard, 1995. "Le financement de la transition en Europe centrale et balkanique," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03585852, HAL.
    5. Mr. Steven A. Symansky & Mr. Leonardo Bartolini, 1994. "Financing the Transition of Previously Centrally Planned Economies: Macroeconomic Effectson Western Europe," IMF Working Papers 1994/157, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Neven, Damien, 1995. "Trade liberalisation with Eastern nations: Some distribution issues," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 622-632, April.
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    2. Dieter Schumacher & Parvati Trübswetter, 2000. "Volume and Comparative Advantage in East-West Trade," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 223, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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