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Struktur und Potentiale des Agraraußenhandels Mittel- und Osteuropas

  • Fock, Achim
  • von Ledebur, Oliver
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    Dieses Diskussionspapier analysiert die Agrarhandelsstruktur der mittel- und osteuropäischen Länder (MOEL) seit dem Beginn des Transformationsprozesses und schätzt die Potentiale im Agrarhandel insbesondere im Hinblick auf einen Beitritt dieser Länder zu Europäischen Union (EU) ab. Die Messung der relativen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit des Agrarsektors zeigt, daß die MOEL insgesamt einen komparativen Vorteil im landwirtschaftlichen Sektor besitzen. Insbesondere für den Fall einer Angleichung des Protektionsniveaus zwischen MOEL und EU dürften diese komparativen Vorteile zu einer deutlichen Stärkung der Agrarhandelsposition beitragen. Der zu erwartende politische Druck einer solchen Entwicklung dürfte auch insofern erheblich sein, als zwischen EU und Ländern der ersten Beitrittsrunde wie Ungarn und Tschechien eine starke Wettbewerbsintensität im Agrarhandel herrscht. Potentiale im Agrarhandel lassen sich durch grundlegende Faktoren wie Einkommen, Bevölkerung und Boden abschätzen. Mit Hilfe eines Gravitationsmodells konnte die Erklärungskraft dieser Faktoren sowie der Einfluß der Entfernung zwischen Handelspartnern und ihrer Zugehörigkeit zu Integrationsblöcken für den Agraraußenhandel gezeigt werden. Durch diesen ökonometrischen Ansatz wurde weiterhin die Hypothese eines langfristig großen Agrarhandelspotentials der MOEL mit der EU gestützt. Es zeigt sich, daß insbesondere ein erhebliches Export der MOEL in die EU besteht, während mit einer deutlichen langfristigen Ausweitung der Agrarimporte der MOEL aus der EU nur bei einem Beitritt zu rechnen ist.

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    Paper provided by Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO) in its series IAMO Discussion Papers with number 14.

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    Date of creation: 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:iamodp:14914
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