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Diffusion de l’automobile en France : vers quels plafonds pour la motorisation et l’usage ?

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  • Roger Collet
  • Laurent Hivert
  • Jean-Loup Madre

Abstract

[fre] En France, la croissance de la motorisation individuelle continue de ralentir et la circulation des voitures particulières plafonne depuis les années 2000, surtout dans les zones les plus urbanisées. Comment ces phénomènes s'inscrivent-ils dans le mouvement de long terme de diffusion de l'automobile des couches aisées vers les catégories modestes de la population? Nous décrivons ce processus de 1974 à 2010 pour la France métropolitaine et pour l'Île-de-France, en distinguant les ménages selon leur position dans la distribution des niveaux de vie. À l'échelle nationale, l'hypothèse que les ménages aisés, les classes moyennes et les plus modestes ont des trajectoires de motorisation et d'usage convergentes vers le même plafond automobile n'a pas été invalidée. Pour évaluer ce plafond, nous ajustons des courbes sigmoïdes de Chapman-Richards sur les séries de l'équipement et de l'utilisation de l'automobile. Plus flexibles et mieux adaptées à notre contexte que des courbes logistiques standards, elles permettent de le situer autour de 0,76 voiture par adulte, et de 16 200 kilomètres par an et par ménage si le prix des carburants se maintenait à son niveau de 2010. Ce plafond des kilométrages est modulé par une élasticité de - 0,24 rendant compte des réactions aux évolutions heurtées des prix des carburants. Toutefois en Île-de-France, le plafonnement des kilométrages a commencé d'autant plus tôt que les ménages sont plus aisés, avant le renchérissement du carburant des années 2000, laissant penser qu'il s'agit d'un mouvement de fond dont les Franciliens seraient précurseurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Collet & Laurent Hivert & Jean-Loup Madre, 2012. "Diffusion de l’automobile en France : vers quels plafonds pour la motorisation et l’usage ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 457(1), pages 123-139.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_2012_num_457_1_9968
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.2012.9968
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.2012.9968
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roger Collet & Mathieu de Lapparent & Laurent Hivert, 2010. "Addiction to car use and dynamic elasticity measures in France," Post-Print hal-00614966, HAL.
    2. Emmanuel Kemel & Roger Collet & Laurent Hivert, 2011. "Evidence for an endogenous rebound effect impacting long-run car use elasticity to fuel price," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 2777-2786.
    3. Philippe Julien, 2000. "Mesurer un univers urbain en expansion," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 336(1), pages 3-33.
    4. Olivier Choquet, 1983. "L'automobile, un bien banalisé," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 154(1), pages 47-55.
    5. Daniel J. Graham & Stephen Glaister, 2002. "The Demand for Automobile Fuel: A Survey of Elasticities," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25, January.
    6. Hivert, Laurent, 2013. "Short-term break in the French love for diesel?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-22.
    7. Roger Collet, 2012. "Household car use in France: a demographic and economic analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 475-485.
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    Cited by:

    1. Julien Milanesi, 2018. "L'imaginaire des grandes infrastructures de transport," Working Papers hal-01939312, HAL.
    2. Jean-Paul Hubert & Jean-Loup Madre & Pierre Pistre, 2016. "L’utilisation de l’automobile par les ménages dans les territoires peu denses : analyse croisée par les enquêtes sur la mobilité et le Recensement de la population," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 483(1), pages 179-203.
    3. Benoît Cornut & Jean-Loup Madre, 2017. "A longitudinal perspective on car ownership and use in relation with income inequalities in the Paris metropolitan area," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 227-244, March.

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