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L'impact des transferts internationaux d'épargne sur les déséquilibres extérieurs

Listed author(s):
  • Joaquim Oliveira Martins
  • Dominique Plihon

[spa] El impacto de las transferencias internacionales de ahorro en los desequilibrios exteriores - El análisis que aquí se propone sobre el período reciente acerca de los profundos desequilibrios de las balanzas de pago, de su duración y de la imbricación de los flujos de capitales sugiere el hecho que taies desequilibrios constituyen el reflejo de importantes transferencias de ahorro entre países industrializados. Si tal es el caso, las consecuencias en términos de política económica se enriquecen con relación al marco habitual de análisis de la competitividad. Dicho de otro modo, el hecho de estimular el ahorro (nacional y extranjero) aparece como una palanca importante de la política económica en un entorno de integración financiera creciente. Esto no pone en tela de juicio la pertinencia de las politicas de ajuste. En efecto, en los casos en que las transferencias de ahorro son posibles, los déficit pueden ser solo durablemente financiados cuando se respeta el criterio de obligación de solvencia. Esto impone el hecho que un país que ha acumulado deficit está en condiciones de obtener beneficios a nivel de los intercambios de bienes y servicios con el fin de permitir el pago de ganancias ligadas a la importación de capital. Los análisis en terminos de competitividad, de especialización o des estrategia industrial vuelven a tomar su importancia para definir las condiciones de ajuste. De este modo, surge una transformación en cuanto a la noción del criterio de obligación externa inducida por el proceso de globalización financiera. Los años recientes, senalados por politicas de ajuste en la mayoria de los paises deficitarios, ilustran bastante bien esta visión de los mecanismo de transferencias internacionales de ahorro. [fre] L'analyse proposée ici, sur la période récente, des profonds déséquilibres des balances de paiements, de leur durée et de l'imbrication des flux de capitaux qui les sous- tendent, suggère que ces déséquilibres sont le reflet d'importants transferts d'épargne entre pays industriels. Si tel est le cas, les conséquences en termes de politique économique sont enrichies par rapport au cadre habituel d'analyse de la compétitivité. Autrement dit, stimuler l'épargne (nationale et étrangère) apparaît comme un levier important de la politique économique dans un environnement d'intégration financière croissante. Ceci ne remet pas en cause la pertinence des politiques d'ajustement. En effet, là où les transferts d'épargne sont possibles, les déficits ne peuvent être durablement cés que si la contrainte de solvabilité est respectée. Le respect de la contrainte de solvabilité impose qu'un pays ayant accumulé des déficits soit en mesure de dégager des surplus au niveau des échanges de biens et services afin d'assurer le paiement des revenus associés à l'importation de capital. Les analyses en termes de compétitivité, de spécialisation ou de stratégie industrielle reprennent alors toute leur importance pour définir les conditions de l'ajustement. Ainsi apparaît une transformation de la notion de "contrainte extérieure" induite par le processus de globalisation financière. Les années récentes, marquées par des politiques d'ajustement dans la plupart des pays déficitaires, illustrent assez bien cette vision des mécanismes de transferts internationaux d'épargne. [eng] The Impact of International Savings Transfers on Trade Deficits - This analysis of the recent large trade deficits, their duration and the underlying capital flows which accompany them, suggests that these deficits reflect large transfers of savings between industrialized countries. If this is the case, the consequences in terms of economic policies become more far reaching in relation to the usual framework for the analysis of competitiveness. In other words, boosting savings (both domestic and foreign) appears to be an important lever in the economic policy in an environment which has an increasing financial integration. This does not question the cogency of policies of adjustment. Whenever savings transfers are possible, deficits can only be durably financed if the constraints of credit ratings are respected. This respect of the constraints of credit ratings implies that a country which has accumulated a deficit should be able to have a surplus in the exchange of goods and services so it can insure the payment of the income associated with capital imports. Analyses in terms of competitiveness, specialization, or industrial strategy then become of prime importance to define adjustment conditions. Thus, there is a change in the notion of « foreign constraints » created by the process of financial globalization. The recent years, which were marked by adjustment policies in most deficit-producing countries, are rather good examples of this analysis of the mechanisms of international savings transfers.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/estat.1990.5451
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File URL: http://www.persee.fr/doc/estat_0336-1454_1990_num_232_1_5451
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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Economie et statistique.

Volume (Year): 232 (1990)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 33-48

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1990_num_232_1_5451
Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1990.5451
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/estat

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  1. Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "Tax Policy and International Competitiveness," NBER Chapters,in: International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, pages 349-386 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Wong, David Y., 1990. "What do saving-investment relationships tell us about capital mobility?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 60-74, March.
  3. Cohen Daniel, 1987. "External and domestic debt constraints of ldcs a theory with a numerical application to brazil and mexico," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8710, CEPREMAP.
  4. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
  5. Martin Feldstein & Philippe Bacchetta, 1991. "National Saving and International Investment," NBER Chapters,in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 201-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Lawrence H. Goulder & Barry Eichengreen, 1989. "Savings Promotion, Investment Promotion, and International Competitiveness," NBER Chapters,in: Trade Policies for International Competitiveness, pages 5-52 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. repec:fth:harver:1463 is not listed on IDEAS
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