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Pacte de stabilité et efficacité de la politique budgétaire

  • Bertrand Martinot
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    [fre] Pacte de stabilité et efficacité de la politique budgétaire par Bertrand Martinot Cet article présente les effets du pacte de stabilité sur la consommation dans un petit modèle calibré où une partie des ménages a un horizon de vie fini à la Blanchard, l'autre partie adoptant un comportement contraint par la liquidité. Ce modèle permet de simuler les effets non keynésiens de la politique budgétaire que le pacte de stabilité pourrait générer en régime de croisière. On mesure à l'aide de simulations l'impact de la limite de 3% de déficit imposée par le pacte sur la variance de la consommation pour différentes cibles de déficit structurel et pour différentes valeurs des paramètres du modèle. Les résultats suggèrent que, dans ce cadre et pour la France, une cible de déficit proche de la limite autorisée par le pacte pourrait se traduire par une variance très élevée de la consommation. À l'inverse, pour un déficit structurel de l'ordre de 1 %, la variance de la consommation ne serait quasiment pas affectée par le pacte. [eng] Stability Pact and Fiscal Policy Efficiency by Bertrand Martinot This paper presents the effects of the stability pact on consumption in a small, calibrated model in which one fraction of the households has a Blanchard finite horizon while the other adopts liquidity-constrained behaviour. This model is used to simulate the non-Keynesian fiscal policy effects that could be generated by the stability pact at cruising speed. Simulations are made to measure the impact of the stability pact's 3% deficit ceiling on the variance in consumption for different structural deficit targets and parameter values. The findings suggest that, in this context and in France, a deficit target close to the pact's authorised ceiling could result in extremely high consumption variance. Conversely, consumption variance with a structural deficit of around 1% would be barely affected by the pact.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

    Volume (Year): 146 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 5 ()
    Pages: 15-30

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2000_num_146_5_6125
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2000.6125
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    1. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    2. Thomas Dalsgaard & Alain de Serres, 1999. "Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries: A Simulated SVAR Model Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 216, OECD Publishing.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
    4. Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Fiscal Crises and Aggregate Demand: Can High Public Debt Reverse the Effects of Fiscal Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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