IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlpol/v2024y2024i6id1443p958-984.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reevaluating the Time-varying Safe Haven Status of Precious Metals: Novel Insights from Economic Policy Uncertainties in the USA and China

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmet Tunc

Abstract

This study aims to examine whether the price exuberances in the prices of four main precious metals stem from their status as safe havens against economic uncertainty (proxied by the US EPU and Chinese CEPU indices). The findings reveal that the effects of both uncertainty measures on gold and silver prices, notably more pronounced in the case of the CEPU, persist for longer, particularly during the surge of uncertainty triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. This finding highlights the safe-haven status of these metals, with a notable dominance of the CEPU in influencing the price dynamics of the gold and silver markets. However, as the observed price exuberances in gold and silver more closely align with periods of supply and demand imbalances, it is less likely that these movements are driven solely by investors seeking safe havens during times of uncertainty. Furthermore, the effect of the EPU on platinum and palladium prices is particularly pronounced during economic turmoil, whereas the effect of the CEPU is confined to the periods that coincide with price exuberances in these metals. In sum, this paper argues that the safe-haven status of individual precious metals is dynamic, and that price exuberances do not consistently originate from their safe-haven status.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmet Tunc, 2024. "Reevaluating the Time-varying Safe Haven Status of Precious Metals: Novel Insights from Economic Policy Uncertainties in the USA and China," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(6), pages 958-984.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2024:y:2024:i:6:id:1443:p:958-984
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1443
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://polek.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.polek.1443.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://polek.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.polek.1443.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18267/j.polek.1443?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1043-1078, November.
    2. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2016. "Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 41-61.
    3. Umar, Zaghum & Aziz, Saqib & Tawil, Dima, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 induced panic on the return and volatility of precious metals," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    4. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    5. Ding, Qian & Huang, Jianbai & Zhang, Hongwei, 2021. "The time-varying effects of financial and geopolitical uncertainties on commodity market dynamics: A TVP-SVAR-SV analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Virginie Coudert & Hélène Raymond-Feingold, 2011. "Gold and financial assets: Are there any safe havens in bear markets?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1613-1622.
    7. Yilanci, Veli & Kilci, Esra N., 2021. "The role of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk in predicting prices of precious metals: Evidence from a time-varying bootstrap causality test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Mont'Alverne Duarte, Angelo & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & de Carvalho Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Issler, João Victor, 2021. "Commodity prices and global economic activity: A derived-demand approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    9. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yilanci, Veli & Kilci, Esra N., 2021. "The role of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk in predicting prices of precious metals: Evidence from a time-varying bootstrap causality test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Hong, Yun & Zhang, Rushan & Zhang, Feipeng, 2024. "Time-varying causality impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns: Global evidence from developed and emerging countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Basse, Tobias & Desmyter, Steven & Saft, Danilo & Wegener, Christoph, 2023. "Leading indicators for the US housing market: New empirical evidence and thoughts about implications for risk managers and ESG investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Shi, Shuping & Tan, David, 2022. "Gold as a financial instrument," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    5. Alola, Andrew Adewale, 2022. "The nexus of renewable energy equity and agricultural commodities in the United States: Evidence of regime-switching and price bubbles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    6. Shahzad, Farrukh & Bouri, Elie & Mokni, Khaled & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2021. "Energy, agriculture, and precious metals: Evidence from time-varying Granger causal relationships for both return and volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Lennart Ante & Aman Saggu, 2024. "Time-Varying Bidirectional Causal Relationships between Transaction Fees and Economic Activity of Subsystems Utilizing the Ethereum Blockchain Network," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-28, January.
    8. Chiang, Shu-hen & Chen, Chien-Fu, 2022. "From systematic to systemic risk among G7 members: Do the stock or real estate markets matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Madaleno, Mara & Dogan, Eyup & Taskin, Dilvin, 2022. "A step forward on sustainability: The nexus of environmental responsibility, green technology, clean energy and green finance," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Chen, Chien-Fu & Chiang, Shu-hen, 2022. "Portfolio diversification possibilities between the stock and housing markets in G7 countries: Evidence from the time-varying Granger causality," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    11. Baum, Christopher F. & Hurn, Stan & Otero, Jesús, 2025. "The dynamics of U.S. industrial production: A time-varying Granger causality perspective," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 13-22.
    12. Gunay, Samet & Kaskaloglu, Kerem, 2022. "Does utilizing smart contracts induce a financial connectedness between Ethereum and non-fungible tokens?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Hong, Yanran & Wang, Lu & Ye, Xiaoqing & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Dynamic asymmetric impact of equity market uncertainty on energy markets: A time-varying causality analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 535-546.
    14. Li, Houjian & Luo, Fangyuan & Guo, Lili, 2024. "Harbor in the storm: How Bitcoin navigates challenges of climate change and global uncertainties," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    15. Wang, Xiao-Qing & Wu, Tong & Zhong, Huaming & Su, Chi-Wei, 2023. "Bubble behaviors in nickel price: What roles do geopolitical risk and speculation play?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    16. NEIFAR, MALIKA & HarzAllah, AMIRA, 2025. "Integration, Contagion and Turmoils; Evidence from Emerging markets," MPRA Paper 123775, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Feb 2025.
    17. Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Gabriele Mingoli, 2023. "Observation-Driven filters for Time- Series with Stochastic Trends and Mixed Causal Non-Causal Dynamics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-065/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Mar 2024.
    18. Hanna Halaburda & Guillaume Haeringer & Joshua Gans & Neil Gandal, 2022. "The Microeconomics of Cryptocurrencies," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 971-1013, September.
    19. Bielskis, Karolis & Lastauskas, Povilas, 2024. "The role of housing market and credit on household consumption dynamics: Evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    20. Horváth, Lajos & Li, Hemei & Liu, Zhenya, 2022. "How to identify the different phases of stock market bubbles statistically?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Precious metals; economic uncertainty; Granger causality; time-varying parameters; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2024:y:2024:i:6:id:1443:p:958-984. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.