IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0324232.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Balancing health and socioeconomic impacts: A uniform framework for evaluating non-pharmaceutical interventions

Author

Listed:
  • Matjaž Gams
  • Anže Marinko
  • Nina Reščič
  • Aljoša Vodopija
  • Sophie Vandepitte
  • Delphine De Smedt
  • Jana Javornik
  • Franc Strle
  • Vito Janko
  • David Susič
  • Zoja Anžur
  • Mitja Luštrek

Abstract

This paper introduces a uniform evaluation framework for assessing the effectiveness of past non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in managing infectious diseases, taking into account the cultural and social differences between countries. The framework enables quantifying and finding the optimal balance of both the health and socioeconomic impacts of NPIs. The aim is to assist policymakers in understanding which NPIs lead to the optimal balance by highlighting unnecessary costs - the costs that could be avoided while maintaining the same infection rates. To assess the extent of unnecessary socioeconomic consequences experienced by a country during a past epidemic of infectious diseases, we use the following approach. First, we develop a model that predicts the number of infections from NPIs in a country. Second, we estimate the socioeconomic costs (SEC) of the NPIs universally for countries included in the study. Third, we develop a model that prescribes the NPI plans with the optimal trade-off between the number of infections and the SEC. Fourth, we create a model that specifically adjusts each country’s SEC. Finally, we provide additional analysis to increase comprehension of the effects of NPIs. Demonstrated through an analysis of COVID-19 pandemic responses in 17 countries, the study offers a systematic presentation of the framework and a concrete examination of the integrated effects of NPIs. It provides insights into interventions’ direct and indirect consequences, offering guidance for future epidemic responses. The framework enables a systematic understanding of the effects of the NPIs applied, acknowledging the national diversity in health measure acceptance and implementation. This allows for fair analysis across countries, identifying and displaying the economic, social, and health-related costs of suboptimal NPI strategies, i.e., unnecessary costs. The framework is applicable for any infectious disease, NPIs, or country, assuming the medical interventions are similar, e.g., timing and amount of vaccination.

Suggested Citation

  • Matjaž Gams & Anže Marinko & Nina Reščič & Aljoša Vodopija & Sophie Vandepitte & Delphine De Smedt & Jana Javornik & Franc Strle & Vito Janko & David Susič & Zoja Anžur & Mitja Luštrek, 2025. "Balancing health and socioeconomic impacts: A uniform framework for evaluating non-pharmaceutical interventions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(6), pages 1-25, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0324232
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0324232
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0324232
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0324232&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0324232?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seth Flaxman & Swapnil Mishra & Axel Gandy & H. Juliette T. Unwin & Thomas A. Mellan & Helen Coupland & Charles Whittaker & Harrison Zhu & Tresnia Berah & Jeffrey W. Eaton & Mélodie Monod & Azra C. Gh, 2020. "Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7820), pages 257-261, August.
    2. Smith, Richard D. & Keogh-Brown, Marcus R. & Barnett, Tony, 2011. "Estimating the economic impact of pandemic influenza: An application of the computable general equilibrium model to the UK," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 235-244, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Foliano, Francesca & Tonei, Valentina & Sevilla, Almudena, 2024. "Social restrictions, leisure and well-being," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    2. Hafner, Marco & Yerushalmi, Erez & Andersson, Fredrik L. & Burtea, Teodor, 2020. "Quantifying the macroeconomic cost of night-time bathroom visits: an application to the UK," CAFE Working Papers 5, Centre for Accountancy, Finance and Economics (CAFE), Birmingham City Business School, Birmingham City University.
    3. Emanuele Amodio & Michele Battisti & Antonio Francesco Gravina & Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Giuseppe Maggio, 2023. "School‐age vaccination, school openings and Covid‐19 diffusion," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 1084-1100, May.
    4. Wang, Peipei & Liu, Haiyan & Zheng, Xinqi & Ma, Ruifang, 2023. "A new method for spatio-temporal transmission prediction of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    5. Pelagatti, Matteo & Maranzano, Paolo, 2021. "Assessing the effectiveness of the Italian risk-zones policy during the second wave of COVID-19," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(9), pages 1188-1199.
    6. Centorrino, Samuele & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2024. "Nonparametric estimation of stochastic frontier models with weak separability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    7. Coast, Joanna, 2018. "A history that goes hand in hand: Reflections on the development of health economics and the role played by Social Science & Medicine, 1967–2017," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 227-232.
    8. De Bruin, Kelly & Monaghan, Eoin & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2020. "The environmental and economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on the Irish economy: An application of the I3E model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS106, July.
    9. Giorgio Fabbri & Salvatore Federico & Davide Fiaschi & Fausto Gozzi, 2024. "Mobility decisions, economic dynamics and epidemic," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 495-531, February.
    10. Li, Xun & Lai, Weizheng & Wan, Qianqian & Chen, Xi, 2022. "Role of professionalism in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: Does a public health or medical background help?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Wan, Jinming & Ichinose, Genki & Small, Michael & Sayama, Hiroki & Moreno, Yamir & Cheng, Changqing, 2022. "Multilayer networks with higher-order interaction reveal the impact of collective behavior on epidemic dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    12. Lin Ma & Gil Shapira & Damien de Walque & Quy‐Toan Do & Jed Friedman & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2022. "The Intergenerational Mortality Trade‐Off Of Covid‐19 Lockdown Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1427-1468, August.
    13. Roy Cerqueti & Raffaella Coppier & Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2022. "The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 46-70.
    14. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    15. Mouratidis, Kostas, 2021. "How COVID-19 reshaped quality of life in cities: A synthesis and implications for urban planning," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    16. Paul, Jomon A. & Wang, Xinfang & Bagchi, Aniruddha, 2024. "Lives or livelihoods: A configurational perspective of COVID-19 policies," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    17. Ioannidis, John P.A. & Cripps, Sally & Tanner, Martin A., 2022. "Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 423-438.
    18. William Clyde & Andreas Kakolyris & Georgios Koimisis, 2021. "A Study of the Effectiveness of Governmental Strategies for Managing Mortality from COVID-19," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 487-505, October.
    19. Casoria, Fortuna & Galeotti, Fabio & Villeval, Marie Claire, 2021. "Perceived social norm and behavior quickly adjusted to legal changes during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 54-65.
    20. Crudu, Federico & Di Stefano, Roberta & Mellace, Giovanni & Tiezzi, Silvia, 2024. "The gray zone: How not imposing a strict lockdown at the beginning of a pandemic can cost many lives," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0324232. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.