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A compartmental model for the dynamic simulation of pandemics with a multi-phase vaccination and its application to Italian COVID-19 data

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  • Roy Cerqueti

    (GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, UNIROMA - Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University [Rome])

  • Alessandro Ramponi

    (Università degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata [Roma, Italia] = University of Rome Tor Vergata [Rome, Italy] = Université de Rome Tor Vergata [Rome, Italie])

  • Sergio Scarlatti

    (Università degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata [Roma, Italia] = University of Rome Tor Vergata [Rome, Italy] = Université de Rome Tor Vergata [Rome, Italie])

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Roy Cerqueti & Alessandro Ramponi & Sergio Scarlatti, 2024. "A compartmental model for the dynamic simulation of pandemics with a multi-phase vaccination and its application to Italian COVID-19 data," Post-Print hal-05111935, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05111935
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2024.08.011
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://univ-angers.hal.science/hal-05111935v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yaesoubi, Reza & Cohen, Ted, 2011. "Generalized Markov models of infectious disease spread: A novel framework for developing dynamic health policies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(3), pages 679-687, December.
    2. Taylor, James W. & Taylor, Kathryn S., 2023. "Combining probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 25-41.
    3. Wang, Jinliang & Zhang, Ran & Kuniya, Toshikazu, 2021. "A reaction–diffusion Susceptible–Vaccinated–Infected–Recovered model in a spatially heterogeneous environment with Dirichlet boundary condition," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 848-865.
    4. Cleo Anastassopoulou & Lucia Russo & Athanasios Tsakris & Constantinos Siettos, 2020. "Data-based analysis, modelling and forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-21, March.
    5. Eleonora Agostini & Francesco Bloise & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2024. "Vaccination policy and mortality from COVID-19 in the European Union," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 27(2), pages 299-322.
    6. Seth Flaxman & Swapnil Mishra & Axel Gandy & H. Juliette T. Unwin & Thomas A. Mellan & Helen Coupland & Charles Whittaker & Harrison Zhu & Tresnia Berah & Jeffrey W. Eaton & Mélodie Monod & Azra C. Gh, 2020. "Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7820), pages 257-261, August.
    7. Yang, Xiaochen & Yang, Zhanwen & Zhang, Chiping, 2023. "Numerical analysis of the Linearly implicit Euler method with truncated Wiener process for the stochastic SIR model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 1-14.
    8. Chen, Ziren & Feng, Lin & Lay, Harold A. & Furati, Khaled & Khaliq, Abdul, 2022. "SEIR model with unreported infected population and dynamic parameters for the spread of COVID-19," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 31-46.
    9. Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Punia, Sushil & Schäfers, Andreas & Tsinopoulos, Christos & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2021. "Forecasting and planning during a pandemic: COVID-19 growth rates, supply chain disruptions, and governmental decisions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(1), pages 99-115.
    10. Das, Saikat & Bose, Indranil & Sarkar, Uttam Kumar, 2023. "Predicting the outbreak of epidemics using a network-based approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 819-831.
    11. Hosseini-Motlagh, Seyyed-Mahdi & Samani, Mohammad Reza Ghatreh & Homaei, Shamim, 2023. "Design of control strategies to help prevent the spread of COVID-19 pandemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 219-238.
    12. Vahdani, Behnam & Mohammadi, Mehrdad & Thevenin, Simon & Gendreau, Michel & Dolgui, Alexandre & Meyer, Patrick, 2023. "Fair-split distribution of multi-dose vaccines with prioritized age groups and dynamic demand: The case study of COVID-19," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(3), pages 1249-1272.
    13. Tornatore, Elisabetta & Maria Buccellato, Stefania & Vetro, Pasquale, 2005. "Stability of a stochastic SIR system," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 354(C), pages 111-126.
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