IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0315337.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the collapse of Afghanistan’s economy using nightlights data

Author

Listed:
  • Till Raphael Saenger
  • Ethan B Kapstein
  • Ronnie Sircar

Abstract

The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 is associated with a rapid collapse of the Afghan economy. However, assessing the scale of this collapse is proving difficult as official data are scarce. To complement qualitative measures obtained through rapid surveys of the population, we employ monthly nightlights data as a proxy measure for changes in economic activity. By combining a synthetic control approach with nightlights data from neighboring countries, our analysis reveals a significant shift in Afghanistan’s economic trajectory: from positive growth to a deep recession, even considering the impact of the Covid pandemic. Our estimations suggest that Afghanistan’s GDP has declined by approximately 16% from 2020 to 2022, notably less than the World Bank’s current survey-based measure of a 28% decline in 2021 alone. In contrast to other available estimates, our reporting includes confidence intervals to convey the uncertainties surrounding these point estimates. This study showcases the potential applicability of our methodology and the use of appropriately processed monthly nightlights data in scenarios where administrative data is limited or unreliable.

Suggested Citation

  • Till Raphael Saenger & Ethan B Kapstein & Ronnie Sircar, 2024. "Estimating the collapse of Afghanistan’s economy using nightlights data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(12), pages 1-13, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0315337
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0315337
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0315337
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0315337&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0315337?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vernon Henderson & Adam Storeygard & David N. Weil, 2011. "A Bright Idea for Measuring Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 194-199, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seiffert, Sebastian, 2015. "The Role of Economic Geography in Subnational African Development," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113186, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Gaurav Dhamija & Punarjit Roychowdhury & Binay Shankar, 2025. "Does urbanization empower women? Evidence from India," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(1), pages 1-47, March.
    3. Chen, Feifei & Qiu, Huanguang & Yang, Sansi, 2025. "Energy transition of the poor: Quasi-experimental evidence from poverty alleviation relocation program in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    4. Çağatay Bircan & Ralph De Haas, 2020. "The Limits of Lending? Banks and Technology Adoption across Russia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 536-609.
    5. Molina Millán, Teresa, 2015. "Regional Migration, Insurance and Economic Shocks: Evidence from Nicaragua," IZA Discussion Papers 9494, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Ajzenman, Nicolás & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Guriev, Sergei, 2022. "Exposure to transit migration: Public attitudes and entrepreneurship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    7. Ralph de Haas & Steven Poelhekke, 2016. "Mining Matters: Natural Resource Extraction and Local Business Constraints," CESifo Working Paper Series 6198, CESifo.
    8. Tähtinen, Tuuli, 2024. "When Facebook Is the Internet: The Role of Social Media in Ethnic Conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    9. Thomas McGregor & Samuel Wills, 2016. "Surfing A Wave Of Economic Growth," OxCarre Working Papers 170, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    10. Ch, Rafael & Martin, Diego A. & Vargas, Juan F., 2021. "Measuring the size and growth of cities using nighttime light," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    11. Edward J. Oughton & Jatin Mathur, 2020. "Predicting cell phone adoption metrics using satellite imagery," Papers 2006.07311, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    12. Canen, Nathan & Ch, Rafael & Wantchekon, Leonard, 2023. "Political uncertainty and the forms of state capture," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    13. Gibson, John & Datt, Gaurav & Murgai, Rinku & Ravallion, Martin, 2017. "For India’s Rural Poor, Growing Towns Matter More Than Growing Cities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 413-429.
    14. Archibong, Belinda & Annan, Francis & Ekhator-Mobayode, Uche, 2023. "The epidemic effect: Epidemics, institutions and human capital development," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 549-566.
    15. Luis Eduardo Quintero & Paula Restrepo, 2018. "Market Access and the Concentration of Economic Activity in a System of Declining Cities," REGION, European Regional Science Association, vol. 5, pages 97-109.
    16. Remi Jedwab & Mr. Prakash Loungani & Anthony Yezer, 2019. "How Should We Measure City Size? Theory and Evidence Within and Across Rich and Poor Countries," IMF Working Papers 2019/203, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Aneli Bongers & Benedetto Molinari & Sebastien Rouillon & Jose L. Torres, 2024. "The foundations of the economics of the outer space: A premier overview," Space Economics Working Papers 01-2024, Institute for Space Economics, revised Aug 2024.
    18. Marija Drobnjaković & Milena Panić & Gorica Stanojević & Dejan Doljak & Vlasta Kokotović Kanazir, 2022. "Detection of the Seasonally Activated Rural Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-24, January.
    19. John Gibson & Susan Olivia & Geua Boe‐Gibson, 2020. "Night Lights In Economics: Sources And Uses," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5), pages 955-980, December.
    20. Anja Garbely & Elias Steiner, 2023. "Understanding compliance with voluntary sustainability standards: a machine learning approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(10), pages 11209-11239, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0315337. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.