Decomposition and decoupling analysis between economic growth and carbon emissions at the regional level: Evidence from six central provinces, China

As the six central provinces account for 23% of total national carbon emissions (CE), research into the decoupling status of their economic growth (EG) and carbon emissions is critical to achieving the Dual Carbon Goals and the Rise of Central China Plan. This research initially examines the decoupling status between CE and EG using the Tapio decoupling model, based on energy consumption (EC) dataset from six central provinces in China between 2000 and 2019. The decoupling index (DI) is then divided into five decoupling drivers using the LMDI method. Finally, an enhanced STIRPAT model is used to examine the decoupling status of CE and EG in the six central provinces from 2020 to 2040. The research findings are: (1) The six central provinces exhibited a stable decoupling status between 2000 and 2019. The DI of the six central provinces ranged from -1.2 to 3.4. (2) The decoupling performance is influenced mainly by the inhibitory effect of economic development (GI) and the promoting effect of energy intensity (EI). The GI consistently maintains an impact value of around 0.9. EI performance varies widely across provinces. (3) From 2020 to 2040, Anhui, Hubei, Henan, and Hunan show significantly strong decoupling indices distributed between -2.21 and -0.07 in all three scenarios. It is important to note that Shanxi and Jiangxi provinces will experience a Reverse Decoupling phenomenon. These findings are helpful in developing regionally coordinated development policies and strategies for reducing CE.