Why people vote for thin-centred ideology parties? A multi-level multi-country test of individual and aggregate level predictors

The present research investigates the individual and aggregate level determinants of support for thin-centred ideology parties across 23 European countries. Employing a multilevel modelling approach, we analysed European Social Survey data round 7 2014 (N = 44000). Our findings show that stronger identification with one’s country and confidence in one’s ability to influence the politics positively but perceiving the system as satisfactory and responsive; trusting the institutions and people, and having positive attitudes toward minorities, i.e., immigrants and refugees, negatively predict support for populist and single issue parties. The level of human development and perceptions of corruption at the country level moderate these effects. Thus, we provide the first evidence that the populist surge is triggered by populist actors’ capacity to simultaneously invoke vertical, “ordinary” people against “the elites”, and horizontal, “us” against “threatening aliens”, categories of people as well as the sovereignty of majority over minorities. These categories and underlying social psychological processes of confidence, trust, and threats are moderated by the general level of human development and corruption perceptions in a country. It is, therefore, likely that voting for populist parties will increase as the liberally democratic countries continue to prosper and offer better opportunities for human development. Stronger emphasis on safeguarding the integrity of the economic and democratic institutions, as our findings imply, and preserving their ethical and honest, i.e., un-corrupt, nature can keep this surge under check.