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Fertilizer profitability for smallholder maize farmers in Tanzania: A spatially-explicit ex ante analysis

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  • Sebastian Palmas
  • Jordan Chamberlin

Abstract

We present an easily calibrated spatial modeling framework for estimating location-specific fertilizer responses, using smallholder maize farming in Tanzania as a case study. By incorporating spatially varying input and output prices, we predict the expected profitability for a location-specific smallholder farmer. A stochastic rainfall component of the model allows us to quantify the uncertainty around expected economic returns. The resulting mapped estimates of expected profitability and uncertainty are good predictors of actual smallholder fertilizer usage in nationally representative household survey data. The integration of agronomic and economic information in our framework makes it a powerful tool for spatially explicit targeting of agricultural technologies and complementary investments, as well as estimating returns to investments at multiple scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Palmas & Jordan Chamberlin, 2020. "Fertilizer profitability for smallholder maize farmers in Tanzania: A spatially-explicit ex ante analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-16, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0239149
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239149
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhiying Xu & Zhengfei Guan & T.S. Jayne & Roy Black, 2009. "Factors influencing the profitability of fertilizer use on maize in Zambia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(4), pages 437-446, July.
    2. Todd Benson & Tewodaj Mogues, 2018. "Constraints in the fertilizer supply chain: evidence for fertilizer policy development from three African countries," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(6), pages 1479-1500, December.
    3. Aurélie P. Harou & Yanyan Liu & Christopher B. Barrett & Liangzhi You, 2017. "Variable Returns to Fertiliser Use and the Geography of Poverty: Experimental and Simulation Evidence from Malawi," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 26(3), pages 342-371.
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    1. Falconnier, Gatien N. & Leroux, Louise & Beillouin, Damien & Corbeels, Marc & Hijmans, Robert J. & Bonilla-Cedrez, Camila & van Wijk, Mark & Descheemaeker, Katrien & Zingore, Shamie & Affholder, Franç, 2023. "Increased mineral fertilizer use on maize can improve both household food security and regional food production in East Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).

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