IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0092097.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

Author

Listed:
  • Sonia Kéfi
  • Vishwesha Guttal
  • William A Brock
  • Stephen R Carpenter
  • Aaron M Ellison
  • Valerie N Livina
  • David A Seekell
  • Marten Scheffer
  • Egbert H van Nes
  • Vasilis Dakos

Abstract

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonia Kéfi & Vishwesha Guttal & William A Brock & Stephen R Carpenter & Aaron M Ellison & Valerie N Livina & David A Seekell & Marten Scheffer & Egbert H van Nes & Vasilis Dakos, 2014. "Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(3), pages 1-13, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0092097
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0092097
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0092097
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0092097&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0092097?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marten Scheffer & Steve Carpenter & Jonathan A. Foley & Carl Folke & Brian Walker, 2001. "Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems," Nature, Nature, vol. 413(6856), pages 591-596, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Donovan, Graham M., 2024. "Characterising early warning signals for critical transitions using a distribution moment approximation for the Fokker–Planck equation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 646(C).
    2. Vishwesha Guttal & Srinivas Raghavendra & Nikunj Goel & Quentin Hoarau, 2016. "Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, January.
    3. Ryan D Batt & Tarsha Eason & Ahjond Garmestani, 2019. "Time scale of resilience loss: Implications for managing critical transitions in water quality," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-19, October.
    4. Bian, Junhao & Ma, Zhiqin & Wang, Chunping & Huang, Tao & Zeng, Chunhua, 2024. "Early warning for spatial ecological system: Fractal dimension and deep learning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 633(C).
    5. Liu, Chen & Pang, Yi-Zhi & Xue, Qiang & Li, Li & Luo, Xiaofeng, 2025. "Exploring the regime shifts of dryland vegetation under climate change: A case study of the Altay, Xinjiang," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    6. Xue, Qiang & Liu, Chen & Li, Li & Sun, Gui-Quan & Wang, Zhen, 2021. "Interactions of diffusion and nonlocal delay give rise to vegetation patterns in semi-arid environments," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 399(C).
    7. Tobias S Brett & Eamon B O’Dea & Éric Marty & Paige B Miller & Andrew W Park & John M Drake & Pejman Rohani, 2018. "Anticipating epidemic transitions with imperfect data," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, June.
    8. Mohammed, M.M.A. & Landi, P. & Minoarivelo, H.O. & Hui, C., 2018. "Frugivory and seed dispersal: Extended bi-stable persistence and reduced clustering of plants," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 31-39.
    9. Acosta-Arreola, Jaime & Domínguez-Hüttinger, Elisa & Aguirre, Pablo & González, Nicolás & Meave, Jorge A., 2023. "Predicting dynamic trajectories of a protected plant community under contrasting conservation regimes: Insights from data-based modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 484(C).
    10. Xiya Liang & Pengfei Li & Juanle Wang & Faith Ka Shun Chan & Chuluun Togtokh & Altansukh Ochir & Davaadorj Davaasuren, 2021. "Research Progress of Desertification and Its Prevention in Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.
    11. Orozco-Fuentes, S. & Griffiths, G. & Holmes, M.J. & Ettelaie, R. & Smith, J. & Baggaley, A.W. & Parker, N.G., 2019. "Early warning signals in plant disease outbreaks," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 393(C), pages 12-19.
    12. Baeza, Andres, 2018. "Modelling the critical transition from Chilean evergreen forest to savanna: Early warning signals and livestock management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 388(C), pages 115-123.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ian Hodge & William M. Adams, 2016. "Short-Term Projects versus Adaptive Governance: Conflicting Demands in the Management of Ecological Restoration," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Jenerette, G. Darrel & Lal, Rattan, 2007. "Modeled carbon sequestration variation in a linked erosion–deposition system," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 207-216.
    3. Teh, Su Yean & DeAngelis, Donald L. & Sternberg, Leonel da Silveira Lobo & Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R. & Smith, Thomas J. & Koh, Hock-Lye, 2008. "A simulation model for projecting changes in salinity concentrations and species dominance in the coastal margin habitats of the Everglades," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 245-256.
    4. Grolleau, Gilles & Ibanez, Lisette & Mzoughi, Naoufel, 2020. "Moral judgment of environmental harm caused by a single versus multiple wrongdoers: A survey experiment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    5. Kong, Xiang-Zhen & Jørgensen, Sven Erik & He, Wei & Qin, Ning & Xu, Fu-Liu, 2013. "Predicting the restoration effects by a structural dynamic approach in Lake Chaohu, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 266(C), pages 73-85.
    6. Paul L. G. Vlek & Asia Khamzina & Hossein Azadi & Anik Bhaduri & Luna Bharati & Ademola Braimoh & Christopher Martius & Terry Sunderland & Fatemeh Taheri, 2017. "Trade-Offs in Multi-Purpose Land Use under Land Degradation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, November.
    7. Duncan A. O’Brien & Smita Deb & Gideon Gal & Stephen J. Thackeray & Partha S. Dutta & Shin-ichiro S. Matsuzaki & Linda May & Christopher F. Clements, 2023. "Early warning signals have limited applicability to empirical lake data," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Can Askan Mavi & Nicolas Quérou, 2020. "Common pool resource management and risk perceptions," DEM Discussion Paper Series 20-25, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    9. Therese Lindahl & Anne-Sophie Crépin & Caroline Schill, 2016. "Potential Disasters can Turn the Tragedy into Success," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(3), pages 657-676, November.
    10. Mariani, Fabio & Pérez-Barahona, Agustín & Raffin, Natacha, 2010. "Life expectancy and the environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 798-815, April.
    11. Eppink, Florian V. & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2007. "Ecological theories and indicators in economic models of biodiversity loss and conservation: A critical review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2-3), pages 284-293, March.
    12. Richard L. Gruner & Damien Power, 2023. "Conceptual wanderlust: How to develop creative supply chain theory with analogies," Journal of Supply Chain Management, Institute for Supply Management, vol. 59(4), pages 3-21, October.
    13. Janssen, Marco A. & Anderies, John M. & Walker, Brian H., 2004. "Robust strategies for managing rangelands with multiple stable attractors," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 140-162, January.
    14. Admiraal, Jeroen F. & Wossink, Ada & de Groot, Wouter T. & de Snoo, Geert R., 2013. "More than total economic value: How to combine economic valuation of biodiversity with ecological resilience," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 115-122.
    15. H. Klammler & P. S. C. Rao & K. Hatfield, 2018. "Modeling dynamic resilience in coupled technological-social systems subjected to stochastic disturbance regimes," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 140-159, March.
    16. Tomczak, M.T. & Niiranen, S. & Hjerne, O. & Blenckner, T., 2012. "Ecosystem flow dynamics in the Baltic Proper—Using a multi-trophic dataset as a basis for food–web modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 123-147.
    17. Florian Wagener, 2013. "Shallow lake economics run deep: nonlinear aspects of an economic-ecological interest conflict," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 423-450, December.
    18. Bashkirtseva, Irina & Ryashko, Lev, 2017. "How environmental noise can contract and destroy a persistence zone in population models with Allee effect," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 61-68.
    19. Kevin Thellmann & Marc Cotter & Sabine Baumgartner & Anna Treydte & Georg Cadisch & Folkard Asch, 2018. "Tipping Points in the Supply of Ecosystem Services of a Mountainous Watershed in Southeast Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.
    20. Rau, Anna-Lena & von Wehrden, Henrik & Abson, David J., 2018. "Temporal Dynamics of Ecosystem Services," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 122-130.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0092097. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.