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Ecosystem flow dynamics in the Baltic Proper—Using a multi-trophic dataset as a basis for food–web modelling

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  • Tomczak, M.T.
  • Niiranen, S.
  • Hjerne, O.
  • Blenckner, T.

Abstract

The Baltic Proper is a semi-enclosed, highly productive basin of the Baltic Sea with a low biodiversity, where only a few key species drive the system's dynamics. Recently, an ecosystem regime shift was described having pronounced changes at all trophic levels, driven by changes in fishery and climate and leading to a food–web reorganisation. An Ecopath with Ecosim Baltic Proper food–web model (BaltProWeb) was developed to simulate and better understand trophic interactions and their flows. The model contains 22 functional groups that represent the main food–web components. BaltProWeb was calibrated to long-term monitoring data (1974–2006), covering multiple trophic levels and is forced by fisheries and environmental drivers. Our model enables the quantification of the flows through the food–web from primary producers to top predators including fisheries over time. The model is able to explain 51% of the variation in biomass of multiple trophic levels and to simulate the regime shift from a cod dominated to a sprat dominated system. Results show a change from benthic to more pelagic trophic flows. Before the reorganisation macrozoobenthos was identified as an important functional group transferring energy directly from lower trophic levels to top predators. After the regime shift, the pelagic trophic flows dominated. Uncertainties and limitations of the modelling approach and results in relation to ecosystem-based management are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomczak, M.T. & Niiranen, S. & Hjerne, O. & Blenckner, T., 2012. "Ecosystem flow dynamics in the Baltic Proper—Using a multi-trophic dataset as a basis for food–web modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 123-147.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:230:y:2012:i:c:p:123-147
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Søren Anker Pedersen & Hans Lassen & Hans Frost, 2015. "The marine ecosystem services approach in a fisheries management perspective," IFRO Working Paper 2015/03, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    2. Heymans, Johanna Jacomina & Coll, Marta & Link, Jason S. & Mackinson, Steven & Steenbeek, Jeroen & Walters, Carl & Christensen, Villy, 2016. "Best practice in Ecopath with Ecosim food-web models for ecosystem-based management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 331(C), pages 173-184.
    3. Hutniczak, Barbara, 2015. "Modeling heterogeneous fleet in an ecosystem based management context," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 203-214.
    4. Maciej T Tomczak & Johanna J Heymans & Johanna Yletyinen & Susa Niiranen & Saskia A Otto & Thorsten Blenckner, 2013. "Ecological Network Indicators of Ecosystem Status and Change in the Baltic Sea," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-11, October.
    5. Barros, Mónica E. & Arriagada, Ana & Arancibia, Hugo & Neira, Sergio, 2024. "Using a time-dynamic food web model to compare predation and fishing mortality in Pleuroncodes monodon (Galatheidae: Crustaceae) and other benthic and demersal resource species off central Chile," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 487(C).

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