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Seasonal Predictability of the East Atlantic Pattern from Sea Surface Temperatures

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  • Isabel Iglesias
  • María N Lorenzo
  • Juan J Taboada

Abstract

This study analyzes the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the second mode of atmospheric variability in the north Atlantic/European sector, namely the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern, for the period 1950–2012. For this purpose, lead-lag relationships between SSTs and the EA pattern, ranging from 0 to 3 seasons, were assessed. As a main result, anomalies of the EA pattern in boreal summer and autumn are significantly related to SST anomalies in the Indo-Pacific Ocean during the preceding seasons. A statistical forecasting scheme based on multiple linear regression was used to hindcast the EA-anomalies with a lead-time of 1 to 2 months. The results of a one-year-out cross-validation approach indicate that the phases of the EA in summer and autumn can be properly hindcast.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabel Iglesias & María N Lorenzo & Juan J Taboada, 2014. "Seasonal Predictability of the East Atlantic Pattern from Sea Surface Temperatures," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0086439
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0086439
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    Cited by:

    1. Jajcay, Nikola, 2018. "Spatial and temporal scales of atmospheric dynamics," Thesis Commons ar8ks, Center for Open Science.

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