IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0086439.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Seasonal Predictability of the East Atlantic Pattern from Sea Surface Temperatures

Author

Listed:
  • Isabel Iglesias
  • María N Lorenzo
  • Juan J Taboada

Abstract

This study analyzes the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the second mode of atmospheric variability in the north Atlantic/European sector, namely the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern, for the period 1950–2012. For this purpose, lead-lag relationships between SSTs and the EA pattern, ranging from 0 to 3 seasons, were assessed. As a main result, anomalies of the EA pattern in boreal summer and autumn are significantly related to SST anomalies in the Indo-Pacific Ocean during the preceding seasons. A statistical forecasting scheme based on multiple linear regression was used to hindcast the EA-anomalies with a lead-time of 1 to 2 months. The results of a one-year-out cross-validation approach indicate that the phases of the EA in summer and autumn can be properly hindcast.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabel Iglesias & María N Lorenzo & Juan J Taboada, 2014. "Seasonal Predictability of the East Atlantic Pattern from Sea Surface Temperatures," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0086439
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0086439
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0086439
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0086439&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0086439?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N/A, 1998. "Research in Progress," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 51(4), pages 722-723, July.
    2. Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes & Javier García‐Serrano & Fabian Lienert & Aida Pintó Biescas & Luis R. L. Rodrigues, 2013. "Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(4), pages 245-268, July.
    3. N/A, 1998. "Research in Progress," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 52(1), pages 153-154, October.
    4. N/A, 1998. "Research in Progress," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 51(2), pages 346-350, January.
    5. N/A, 1998. "Research in Progress," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 51(3), pages 547-549, April.
    6. Jewson,Stephen & Brix,Anders With contributions by-Name:Ziehmann,Christine, 2005. "Weather Derivative Valuation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521843713, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jajcay, Nikola, 2018. "Spatial and temporal scales of atmospheric dynamics," Thesis Commons ar8ks, Center for Open Science.
    2. Jajcay, Nikola, 2018. "Spatial and temporal scales of atmospheric dynamics," Thesis Commons ar8ks_v1, Center for Open Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gianluca Misuraca & Clelia Colombo & Csaba Kucsera & Stephanie Carretero & Margherita Bacigalupo & Raluca Radescu, 2015. "ICT-enabled Social Innovation in support of the Implementation of the Social Investment Package (IESI) - Mapping and Analysis of ICT-enabled Social Innovation Initiatives promoting Social Investment t," JRC Research Reports JRC97467, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Sharma, Rakhi & Tiwari, G.N., 2013. "Life cycle assessment of stand-alone photovoltaic (SAPV) system under on-field conditions of New Delhi, India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 272-282.
    3. Mahdavi, Mahdi & Malmström, Tomi & van de Klundert, Joris & Elkhuizen, Sylvia & Vissers, Jan, 2013. "Generic operational models in health service operations management: A systematic review," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 271-280.
    4. Pavlatos, Odysseas & Paggios, Ioannis, 2007. "Cost Accounting In Greek Hotel Enterprises: An Empirical Approach," MPRA Paper 6364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Natalie Todak & Michael D. White & Lisa M. Dario & Andrea R. Borrego, 2018. "Overcoming the Challenges of Experimental Research: Lessons From a Criminal Justice Case Study Involving TASER Exposure," Evaluation Review, , vol. 42(3), pages 358-385, June.
    6. Barberi, Paolo, 2015. "Functional Biodiversity in Organic Systems: The Way Forward?," Sustainable Agriculture Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 4(3 Special).
    7. Alicia Meckstroth & LaDonna Pavetti & Michelle K. Derr, "undated". "Implementing Welfare Reform in Nebraska: Accomplishments, Challenges, and Opportunities for Improvement," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 1597429212e348bcb03d9a3a0, Mathematica Policy Research.
    8. repec:mpr:mprres:2422 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Nawaz, I. & Tiwari, G.N., 2006. "Embodied energy analysis of photovoltaic (PV) system based on macro- and micro-level," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3144-3152, November.
    10. P. Barnwal & G. N. Tiwari, 2008. "Life cycle energy metrics and CO 2 credit analysis of a hybrid photovoltaic/thermal greenhouse dryer," International Journal of Low-Carbon Technologies, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 203-220, July.
    11. Shukla, Ashish & Tiwari, G.N. & Sodha, M.S., 2009. "Embodied energy analysis of adobe house," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 755-761.
    12. Rui Zhou & Johnny Siu-Hang Li & Jeffrey Pai, 2019. "Pricing temperature derivatives with a filtered historical simulation approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(15), pages 1462-1484, October.
    13. Jewson Stephen & Penzer Jeremy, 2006. "Estimating Trends in Weather Series: Consequences for Pricing Derivatives," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-17, September.
    14. Jean-Louis Bertrand & Xavier Brusset, 2018. "Managing the financial consequences of weather variability," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(5), pages 301-315, September.
    15. Buchholz, Matthias & Musshoff, Oliver, 2014. "The role of weather derivatives and portfolio effects in agricultural water management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 34-44.
    16. Musshoff, Oliver & Hirschauer, Norbert, 2008. "Hedging von Mengenrisiken in der Landwirtschaft – Wie teuer dürfen „ineffektive“ Wetterderivate sein?," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(05), pages 1-12.
    17. Turvey, Calum G. & Norton, Michael, 2008. "An Internet-Based Tool for Weather Risk Management," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 63-78, April.
    18. Jr‐Wei Huang & Sharon S. Yang & Chuang‐Chang Chang, 2018. "Modeling temperature behaviors: Application to weather derivative valuation," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(9), pages 1152-1175, September.
    19. Lannoo, Karel & Thomadakis, Apostolos, 2020. "Derivatives in Sustainable Finance," ECMI Papers 29791, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    20. Caporin, Massimiliano & Preś, Juliusz & Torro, Hipolit, 2012. "Model based Monte Carlo pricing of energy and temperature Quanto options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1700-1712.
    21. Florin Turcaș & Florin Cornel Dumiter & Marius Boiță, 2022. "Econophysics Techniques and Their Applications on the Stock Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-25, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0086439. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.