IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pclm00/0000145.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Key predictors for climate policy support and political mobilization: The role of beliefs and preferences

Author

Listed:
  • Montfort Simon

Abstract

Public support and political mobilization are two crucial factors for the adoption of ambitious climate policies in line with the international greenhouse gas reduction targets of the Paris Agreement. Despite their compound importance, they are mainly studied separately. Using a random forest machine-learning model, this article investigates the relative predictive power of key established explanations for public support and mobilization for climate policies. Predictive models may shape future research priorities and contribute to theoretical advancement by showing which predictors are the most and least important. The analysis is based on a pre-election conjoint survey experiment on the Swiss CO2 Act in 2021. Results indicate that beliefs (such as the perceived effectiveness of policies) and policy design preferences (such as for subsidies or tax-related policies) are the most important predictors while other established explanations, such as socio-demographics, issue salience (the relative importance of issues) or political variables (such as the party affiliation) have relatively weak predictive power. Thus, beliefs are an essential factor to consider in addition to explanations that emphasize issue salience and preferences driven by voters’ cost-benefit considerations.

Suggested Citation

  • Montfort Simon, 2023. "Key predictors for climate policy support and political mobilization: The role of beliefs and preferences," PLOS Climate, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(8), pages 1-21, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pclm00:0000145
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000145
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000145
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/climate/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000145&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000145?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matto Mildenberger & Peter D. Howe & Chris Miljanich, 2019. "Households with solar installations are ideologically diverse and more politically active than their neighbours," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1033-1039, December.
    2. James N. Druckman & Mary C. McGrath, 2019. "The evidence for motivated reasoning in climate change preference formation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(2), pages 111-119, February.
    3. Stefano Carattini & Steffen Kallbekken & Anton Orlov, 2019. "How to win public support for a global carbon tax," Nature, Nature, vol. 565(7739), pages 289-291, January.
    4. Liam F. Beiser-McGrath & Robert A. Huber, 2018. "Assessing the relative importance of psychological and demographic factors for predicting climate and environmental attitudes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 335-347, August.
    5. Amrita Dhillon & Susana Peralta, 2002. "Economic Theories Of Voter Turnout," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(480), pages 332-352, June.
    6. Michael Pahle & Dallas Burtraw & Christian Flachsland & Nina Kelsey & Eric Biber & Jonas Meckling & Ottmar Edenhofer & John Zysman, 2018. "Sequencing to ratchet up climate policy stringency," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(10), pages 861-867, October.
    7. Schaffer, Lena Maria & Oehl, Bianca & Bernauer, Thomas, 2022. "Are policymakers responsive to public demand in climate politics?," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 136-164, March.
    8. Jenkins-Smith, Hank C. & Sabatier, Paul A., 1994. "Evaluating the Advocacy Coalition Framework," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 175-203, April.
    9. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    10. Matto Mildenberger & Erick Lachapelle & Kathryn Harrison & Isabelle Stadelmann-Steffen, 2022. "Limited impacts of carbon tax rebate programmes on public support for carbon pricing," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(2), pages 141-147, February.
    11. Wright, Marvin N. & Ziegler, Andreas, 2017. "ranger: A Fast Implementation of Random Forests for High Dimensional Data in C++ and R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 77(i01).
    12. Cranmer, Skyler J. & Desmarais, Bruce A., 2017. "What Can We Learn from Predictive Modeling?," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 145-166, April.
    13. David Klenert & Linus Mattauch & Emmanuel Combet & Ottmar Edenhofer & Cameron Hepburn & Ryan Rafaty & Nicholas Stern, 2018. "Making carbon pricing work for citizens," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 669-677, August.
    14. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 135-135.
    15. Hainmueller, Jens & Hopkins, Daniel J. & Yamamoto, Teppei, 2014. "Causal Inference in Conjoint Analysis: Understanding Multidimensional Choices via Stated Preference Experiments," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 1-30, January.
    16. Stefan Drews & Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, 2016. "What explains public support for climate policies? A review of empirical and experimental studies," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 855-876, October.
    17. Kachi, Aya & Bernauer, Thomas & Gampfer, Robert, 2015. "Climate policy in hard times: Are the pessimists right?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 227-241.
    18. Ana-Maria Bliuc & Craig McGarty & Emma F. Thomas & Girish Lala & Mariette Berndsen & RoseAnne Misajon, 2015. "Public division about climate change rooted in conflicting socio-political identities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(3), pages 226-229, March.
    19. Robert Gampfer, 2014. "Do individuals care about fairness in burden sharing for climate change mitigation? Evidence from a lab experiment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 65-77, May.
    20. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Addendum: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 768-768, November.
    21. Horiuchi, Yusaku & Markovich, Zachary & Yamamoto, Teppei, 2022. "Does Conjoint Analysis Mitigate Social Desirability Bias?," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(4), pages 535-549, October.
    22. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 301-320, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simon Montfort, 2023. "Key predictors for climate policy support and political mobilization: The role of beliefs and preferences," Papers 2306.10144, arXiv.org.
    2. Lichtin, Florian & Smith, E. Keith & Axhausen, Kay W. & Bernauer, Thomas, 2024. "How to design publicly acceptable road pricing? Experimental insights from Switzerland," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    3. Sebastian Levi & Christian Flachsland & Michael Jakob, 2020. "Political Economy Determinants of Carbon Pricing," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 128-156, May.
    4. Lackner, Teresa & Fierro, Luca E. & Mellacher, Patrick, 2025. "Opinion dynamics meet agent-based climate economics: An integrated analysis of carbon taxation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    5. Oskar Lindgren & Erik Elwing & Mikael Karlsson & Sverker C. Jagers, 2024. "Public acceptability of climate-motivated rationing," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    6. Malcolm Fairbrother, 2022. "Public opinion about climate policies: A review and call for more studies of what people want," PLOS Climate, Public Library of Science, vol. 1(5), pages 1-14, May.
    7. Sung Eun Kim & Seung Yeob Kim & Junwoo Suh, 2024. "Public support for carbon tax in South Korea: The role of tax design and revenue recycling," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), May.
    8. Kettner, Claudia & Leoni, Thomas & Köberl, Judith & Kortschak, Dominik & Kirchner, Mathias & Sommer, Mark & Wallenko, Laura & Bachner, Gabriel & Mayer, Jakob & Spittler, Nathalie & Kulmer, Veronika, 2024. "Modelling the economy-wide effects of unilateral CO2 pricing under different revenue recycling schemes in Austria – Searching for a triple dividend," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Sterner, Thomas & Ewald, Jens & Sterner, Erik, 2024. "Economists and the climate," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Foutzopoulos, Giorgos & Pandis, Nikolaos & Tsagris, Michail, 2024. "Predicting full retirement attainment of NBA players," MPRA Paper 121540, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Oana Ramona Lobont & Nicoleta Mihaela Doran & Sorana Vatavu & Mariana Alexandra Barbulescu & Florin Costea & Gabriela Badareu, 2025. "The Dark Side of Growth: Are Shadow Economies Undermining the Global Climate Goal?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-25, June.
    12. Bennett, Donyetta & Mekelburg, Erik & Strauss, Jack & Williams, T.H., 2024. "Unlocking the black box of sentiment and cryptocurrency: What, which, why, when and how?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Dorband, Ira Irina & Jakob, Michael & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Steckel, Jan Christoph, 2019. "Poverty and distributional effects of carbon pricing in low- and middle-income countries – A global comparative analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 246-257.
    14. Ravigné, Emilien & Ghersi, Frédéric & Nadaud, Franck, 2022. "Is a fair energy transition possible? Evidence from the French low-carbon strategy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    15. Ewald, Jens & Sterner, Thomas & Sterner, Erik, 2022. "Understanding the resistance to carbon taxes: Drivers and barriers among the general public and fuel-tax protesters," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    16. Daniele Malerba, 2022. "The Effects of Social Protection and Social Cohesion on the Acceptability of Climate Change Mitigation Policies: What Do We (Not) Know in the Context of Low- and Middle-Income Countries?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(3), pages 1358-1382, June.
    17. van den Bergh, Jeroen, 2023. "Climate policy versus growth concerns: Suggestions for economic research and communication," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    18. Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline & Mouez Fodha, 2023. "Debt, tax and environmental policy [Dette, taxe et politique environnementale]," Post-Print halshs-04181981, HAL.
    19. Kantorowicz, Jaroslaw & Collewet, Marion & DiGiuseppe, Matthew & Vrijburg, Hendrik, 2024. "How to finance green investments? The role of public debt," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    20. Flörchinger, Daniela & Perino, Grischa & Frondel, Manuel & Jarke-Neuert, Johannes, 2024. "The Impact of Information Provision on Revealed-Preference Support for Climate Policies," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302395, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pclm00:0000145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: climate (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/climate .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.