An empirical analysis of the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis in the Philippines
We reexamine the relationship between growth and exports of the Philippines for the period 1977Ð2009 using the methods of Sharma and Panagiotidis  and Feder . With the shift in the current economic policy toward inclusive growth, we find it necessary to assess if indeed the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis really worked for the country. Specifically, our research investigates the cointegration of exports, imports, and output using the Johansen cointegration test and the Breitung cointegration test; the Granger-causality between exports, investments, and output; and the impact of macroeconomic shocks by employing a vector autoregressive model. In summary, we find that the ELG hypothesis appears to be empirically unsupported for the Philippine case. Classification-E20, F10, F41, O11, O24
Volume (Year): 50 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
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- Furuoka, Fumitaka, 2009. "Econometric Analysis of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence for BIMP-EAGA Countries," Philippine Journal of Development PJD 2007 Vol. XXXIV No. 2, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
- Abhijit Sharma & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Cointegration and Causality Evidence (1971-2001)," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 232-248, May.
- Lorna E. Amrinto & Hector O. Zapata, 2006. "A semiparametric assessment of export-led growth in the Philippines," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 1-22, December.
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