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A semiparametric assessment of export-led growth in the Philippines

Author

Listed:
  • Lorna E. Amrinto

    (Economics Department, University of San Carlos)

  • Hector O. Zapata

    (Louisiana State University, USA)

Abstract

The export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for the Philippines is examined by adopting a semiparametric approach under two levels of temporal aggregation. To assess the impact of model specification on the ELG hypothesis, parametric and semiparametric error-correction models (ECMs) are estimated using Philippine annual and quarterly data on gross domestic product (GDP), exports, exchange rates, and gross fixed-capital formation, focusing on the role of exchange rates. The causal relationship between exports and economic growth is examined using the Granger-causality procedure. It can be concluded that for the Philippines, the ELG hypothesis is (a) sensitive to model specification and (b) affected by different levels of temporal aggregation and by the inclusion or exclusion of exchange rates. The general results on bidirectional causality between exports and economic growth suggest that the Philippines could enjoy economic prosperity by strengthening its trade and investment policy and gearing it toward opening up the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorna E. Amrinto & Hector O. Zapata, 2006. "A semiparametric assessment of export-led growth in the Philippines," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 1-22, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:43:y:2006:i:2:p:1-22
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    File URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/246/606
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:204-218 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:38:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fumitaka Furuoka & Qaiser Munir, 2010. "Does export dependency hurt economic development? Empirical evidence from Singapore," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 204-218.
    4. Tri-Dung Lam, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of the ASEAN-4’s Causality between Exports and Output Growth," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 497-502.
    5. Furuoka, Fumitaka, 2009. "Econometric Analysis of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence for BIMP-EAGA Countries," Philippine Journal of Development PJD 2007 Vol. XXXIV No. 2, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    6. Richard Ballester & Joy Sinay, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis in the Philippines," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 50(1), pages 83-110, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    export-led growth; semiparametric error-correction model; Granger causality;

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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