IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pfq/journl/v64y2019i3p337-349.html

Assessment of the Macroeconomic Risk Analysis of International Credit Rating Agencies against the Principles of Soundness and Credibility

Author

Listed:
  • Simon, József
  • Simon-András, Henrietta

Abstract

International credit rating agencies regularly (twice a year) assess the risk level of sovereign debt, and thus that of a given country. In order to identify risks, each credit rating agency has developed its own methodology to assess economic and public finance processes and identify the emerging risks. The evaluations carried out influence at the international level the financing possibilities of a given country and its conditions. The improving result of evaluations by international credit rating agencies has become one of the requirements for the success of economic policy. However, this can only be a realistic condition and a measure of success if the evaluation made is methodologically sound and the evaluations resulting from their consistent implementation are scientifically credible. This article describes in detail the evaluation methodology applied by the three major international credit rating agencies to evaluate the individual countries and sovereign debt. After presenting the general aspects, the article draws attention to the fact that the principles of objectivity, authenticity and methodological determination are enforced in practice in the evaluations of international credit rating agencies to a limited extent.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon, József & Simon-András, Henrietta, 2019. "Assessment of the Macroeconomic Risk Analysis of International Credit Rating Agencies against the Principles of Soundness and Credibility," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 64(3), pages 337-349.
    • Handle: RePEc:pfq:journl:v:64:y:2019:i:3:p:337-349
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.35551/PFQ_2019_3_2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://unipub.lib.uni-corvinus.hu/8684/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.35551/PFQ_2019_3_2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2011. "Short‐ and long‐run determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    2. DeLong J. Bradford, 2011. "Economics in Crisis," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-2, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gábor Hajnal & Nóra Szûcs, 2018. "The Transparency of Credit Ratings – Reconstruction of Hungary’s Sovereign Rating," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 17(3), pages 29-56.
    2. Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.
    3. Balima, Wenéyam Hippolyte & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2017. "Sovereign debt risk in emerging market economies: Does inflation targeting adoption make any difference?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 360-377.
    4. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael, 2015. "Sovereign credit ratings in the European Union: A model-based fiscal analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 220-247.
    5. Ioannou, Stefanos & Wójcik, Dariusz & Pažitka, Vladimír, 2021. "Financial centre bias in sub-sovereign credit ratings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Sami Ben Mim & Ridha Nouira & Fatma Mabrouk, 2023. "Non-Linear Determinants of Developing Countries’ Sovereign Ratings: Evidence from a Panel Threshold Regression (PTR) Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-23, February.
    7. Patrycja Klusak & Matthew Agarwala & Matt Burke & Moritz Kraemer & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2023. "Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7468-7491, December.
    8. Schumacher, Ingmar, 2014. "On the self-fulfilling prophecy of changes in sovereign ratings," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 351-356.
    9. Weneyam Hippolyte Balima & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Risk in Emerging Countries: Does Inflation Targeting Adoption Make Any Difference?," CERDI Working papers halshs-01128239, HAL.
    10. repec:rim:rimwps:19-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Purificacion Parrado-Martinez & Antonio Parta Ureña & Pilar Gomez Fernandez-Aguado, 2014. "Usefulness of Financial Soundness Indicators for risk assessment: The case of EU member countries," Working Papers 14.01, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Financial Economics and Accounting (former Department of Business Administration).
    12. repec:cfe:wpcefa:2013_12 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bartels, Bernhard & Weiser, Constantin, 2015. "Public Debt & Sovereign Ratings - Do Industrialized Countries Enjoy a Privilege?," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112822, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2014. "Modelling the U.S. sovereign credit rating," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 202-218.
    15. Broto, Carmen & Molina, Luis, 2016. "Sovereign ratings and their asymmetric response to fundamentals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 206-224.
    16. Jean-Marc Fournier & Manuel Bétin, 2018. "Sovereign defaults: Evidence on the importance of government effectiveness," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1494, OECD Publishing.
    17. Teixeira, João C.A. & Silva, Francisco J.F. & Ferreira, Manuel B.S. & Vieira, José A.C., 2018. "Sovereign credit rating determinants under financial crises," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-13.
    18. I. Koetsier & J.A. Bikker, 2017. "Herding behaviour of Dutch pension funds in sovereign bond investments," Working Papers 17-15, Utrecht School of Economics.
    19. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper & de Jong, Frank, 2021. "The maturity of sovereign debt issuance in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    20. Burke, Matt & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2026. "The Adaptation Imperative: Climate Change and Sovereign Credit Risk," INET Oxford Working Papers 2026-03, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    21. Emilian C. Miricescu & Lucian Ţâţu & Delia Cornea, 2016. "The Determinants of the Sovereign Debt Rating: Evidence for the European Union Countries," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(1), pages 175-188.
    22. Bart H. L. Overes & Michel van der Wel, 2021. "Modelling Sovereign Credit Ratings: Evaluating the Accuracy and Driving Factors using Machine Learning Techniques," Papers 2101.12684, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • M19 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pfq:journl:v:64:y:2019:i:3:p:337-349. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adam Hoffmann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bkeeehu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.