Valuation of Early-Stage Ventures: Option Valuation Models vs. Traditional Approaches
This paper presents a new method for valuing early stage ventures, a method which views new ventures as multi-stage call options. It examines the traditional methods for valuing such ventures--the ubiquitous Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Method using a risk adjusted discount rate, and the Venture Capital method which uses high discount rates to offset optimistic forecasts--and describes their conceptual disadvantages visa vis the Option Method. In order to make the Option Method a practical alternative to traditional approaches, the paper presents an algorithm for valuing multi-stage options, and it develops the needed input data using venture capital archives and public offerings. The Option Method is applied to a typical early-stage investment, producing values close to those predicted by venture capital "rules of thumb." In contrast, the DCF method badly underestimates the value of the venture. At this time the Option Method is a practical way to value early-stage ventures, both internal ventures and start-up companies. It offers many advantages over the venture capitalists' s "rules of thumb."
Volume (Year): 5 (1996)
Issue (Month): 2 (Summer)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 24255 Pacific Coast Hwy, Malibu CA|
Web page: http://bschool.pepperdine.edu/jef
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blume, Marshall E, 1971. "On the Assessment of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-10, March.
- Bygrave, William & Fast, Norman & Khoylian, Roubina & Vincent, Linda & William Yue, 1989. "Early rates of return of 131 venture capital funds started 1978-1984," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 93-105, March.
- Marc Nerlove, 1968.
"Further Evidence on the Estimation of Dynamic Economic Relations from a Time Series of Cross-Sections,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
257, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Nerlove, Marc, 1971. "Further Evidence on the Estimation of Dynamic Economic Relations from a Time Series of Cross Sections," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(2), pages 359-382, March.
- Megginson, William L & Weiss, Kathleen A, 1991. " Venture Capitalist Certification in Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 879-903, July.
- Barraquand, Jérôme & Martineau, Didier, 1995. "Numerical Valuation of High Dimensional Multivariate American Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(03), pages 383-405, September.
- Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
- Robert H. Keeley & Lassaad A. Turki, 1993. "Risk-Return Profiles of New Ventures: An Empirical Study," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 2(2), pages 87-109, Spring.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
- Ritter, Jay R, 1991. " The Long-run Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-27, March.
- Jèôme Barraquand, 1995. "Numerical Valuation of High Dimensional Multivariate European Securities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(12), pages 1882-1891, December.
- Clarkson, Peter M & Thompson, Rex, 1990. " Empirical Estimates of Beta When Investors Face Estimation Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 431-453, June.
- Bardia Kamrad & Peter Ritchken, 1991. "Multinomial Approximating Models for Options with k State Variables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(12), pages 1640-1652, December.
- Jain, Bharat A & Kini, Omesh, 1994. " The Post-Issue Operating Performance of IPO Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1699-1726, December.
- Geske, Robert, 1977. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 541-552, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pep:journl:v:5:y:1996:i:2:p:115-38. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Craig Everett)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.