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The role of expertise in dynamic risk assessment: A reflection of the problem-solving strategies used by experienced fireground commanders

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  • Justin Okoli

    (Centre for Decision Analysis and Risk Management, School of Science and Technology, Middlesex University)

  • John Watt

    (Centre for Decision Analysis and Risk Management, School of Science and Technology, Middlesex University)

  • Gordon Weller

    (Social Work and Inter-professional Learning, School of Health and Education, Middlesex University)

  • William B L Wong

    (School of Science and Technology, Middlesex University)

Abstract

Although the concept of dynamic risk assessment has in recent times become more topical in the training manuals of most high-risk domains, only a few empirical studies have reported how experts actually carry out this crucial task. The knowledge gap between research and practice in this area, therefore, calls for more empirical investigation within the naturalistic environment. In this article, we present and discuss the problem-solving strategies employed by 16 experienced operational firefighters using a qualitative knowledge elicitation tool – the critical decision method. Findings revealed that dynamic risk assessment is not merely a process of weighing the risks of a proposed course of action against its benefits, but rather an experiential and pattern recognition process. The article concludes by discussing the implications of designing training curriculum for the less experienced officers using the elicited expert knowledge.

Suggested Citation

  • Justin Okoli & John Watt & Gordon Weller & William B L Wong, 2016. "The role of expertise in dynamic risk assessment: A reflection of the problem-solving strategies used by experienced fireground commanders," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(1), pages 4-25, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:risman:v:18:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1057_rm.2015.20
    DOI: 10.1057/rm.2015.20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johnson, Joseph G. & Raab, Markus, 2003. "Take The First: Option-generation and resulting choices," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 215-229, July.
    2. Shanteau, James, 1992. "Competence in experts: The role of task characteristics," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 252-266, November.
    3. Rosen, Michael A. & Shuffler, Marissa & Salas, Eduardo, 2010. "How Experts Make Decisions: Beyond the JDM Paradigm," Industrial and Organizational Psychology, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 438-442, December.
    4. repec:cup:judgdm:v:5:y:2010:i:4:p:300-309 is not listed on IDEAS
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