IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/palcom/v11y2024i1d10.1057_s41599-024-04251-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of demographic dividend shift on household consumption:Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Lu Guo

    (Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics)

  • Feng Wang

    (Dongbei University of Finance and Economics)

Abstract

The study empirically examines and tests the impact and main effect mechanisms of the demographic dividend shift on residents’ consumption using provincial panel data. The study shows that the demographic dividend shift has significantly increased the per capita consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents in general, which is mainly realized through the two influences of increasing the per capita disposable income of residents and improving the regional consumption environment. Moreover, in addition to the expansion of consumption, the demographic dividend shift also has a significant positive impact on the upgrading of consumption structure; and the consumption expansion effect of the demographic dividend shift mainly comes from the significant positive impact on the consumption of rural residents, while the impact on the consumption of urban residents is not significant; in the areas where China’s labor force outflows are small, the demographic dividend shift promotes per capita consumption expenditures of both urban and rural residents significantly more strongly.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu Guo & Feng Wang, 2024. "The impact of demographic dividend shift on household consumption:Evidence from China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:11:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-024-04251-3
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-024-04251-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41599-024-04251-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41599-024-04251-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isabel Cairó & Tomaz Cajner, 2018. "Human Capital and Unemployment Dynamics: Why More Educated Workers Enjoy Greater Employment Stability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(609), pages 652-682, March.
    2. Heinrich Hock & David Weil, 2012. "On the dynamics of the age structure, dependency, and consumption," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 1019-1043, July.
    3. Rik Pieters, 2017. "Meaningful Mediation Analysis: Plausible Causal Inference and Informative Communication," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 44(3), pages 692-716.
    4. Chunshan Zhou & Ming Li & Guojun Zhang & Yuqu Wang & Song Liu, 2020. "Heterogeneity of Internal Migrant Household Consumption in Host Cities: A Comparison of Skilled Migrants and Labor Migrants in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-16, September.
    5. Welch, F, 1970. "Education in Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-59, Jan.-Feb..
    6. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson, 2014. "Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 299-315, February.
    7. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2018. "Population age structure and consumption growth: evidence from National Transfer Accounts," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 135-153, January.
    8. Wei, Zheng & Hao, Rui, 2010. "Demographic structure and economic growth: Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 472-491, December.
    9. Mason, Andrew & Lee, Ronald & Jiang, Jennifer Xue, 2016. "Demographic dividends, human capital, and saving," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 106-122.
    10. Zijun Wang & Qingsong Yao & Guoqing Zhao, 2024. "Age structure and economic growth: The quantification of China’s demographic dividends," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 463-481, October.
    11. Choo, Eddie & Gee, Christopher, 2024. "Age and education effects in Singapore’s demographic dividend 1970–2020," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    12. Hansen, Hermann-Josef, 1996. "The impact of interest rates on private consumption in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,03e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baerlocher, Diogo & Parente, Stephen L. & Rios-Neto, Eduardo, 2019. "Economic effects of demographic dividend in Brazilian regions," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    2. Patrik Rovný & Serhiy Moroz & Jozef Palkovič & Elena Horská, 2021. "Impact of Demographic Structure on Economic Development of Ukrainian Coastal Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-19, February.
    3. David E. BLOOM & Michael KUHN & Klaus PRETTNER, 2017. "Africa’s Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 63-76, March.
    4. Ademola Obafemi Young, 2019. "Economic Growth and Demographic Dividend Nexus in Nigeria: A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Approach," Asian Social Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(2), pages 1-37, February.
    5. Choo, Eddie & Gee, Christopher, 2024. "Age and education effects in Singapore’s demographic dividend 1970–2020," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    6. Hanzhi Hu, 2023. "The Consequences of Fertility Decline on Educational Attainment in China," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-30, December.
    7. Lamar Crombach & Jeroen Smits, 2022. "The Demographic Window of Opportunity and Economic Growth at Sub-National Level in 91 Developing Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 171-189, May.
    8. Kalabikhina, I. & Kazbekova, Z., 2022. "The impact of the first demographic dividend on economic growth considering human capital," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 81-100.
    9. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.
    10. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2018. "Population age structure and consumption growth: evidence from National Transfer Accounts," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 135-153, January.
    11. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2016. "Africa’s Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend," VID Working Papers 1604, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    12. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Yu Sang Chang & Moon Jung Kim & Su Min Kim & Sung Jun Jo, 2023. "The Offsetting Impact of Dependency and Urbanization on Mean Years of Schooling: A Scaling Analysis of 97 Countries," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, April.
    14. Anikó Bíró, 2013. "Subjective mortality hazard shocks and the adjustment of consumption expenditures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1379-1408, October.
    15. Tao Yang, Dennis, 2004. "Education and allocative efficiency: household income growth during rural reforms in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 137-162, June.
    16. Kim, Joonkyung & Zhao, Min & Soman, Dilip, 2023. "Converging vs diverging: The effect of visual representation of goal structure on financial decisions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 362-377.
    17. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis Gil-Alana, 2024. "Unemployment Hysteresis by Sex and Education Attainment in the EU," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 801-827, March.
    18. Wim Groot, 1998. "Empirical estimates of the rate of depreciation of education," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(8), pages 535-538.
    19. Yu Ding & Wayne S. DeSarbo & Dominique M. Hanssens & Kamel Jedidi & John G. Lynch & Donald R. Lehmann, 2020. "The past, present, and future of measurement and methods in marketing analysis," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 175-186, September.
    20. Francisco Queiró, 2022. "Entrepreneurial Human Capital and Firm Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 2061-2100.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:11:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-024-04251-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.nature.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.