Assessing insurer guarantee cover and risk retention toward SDG 3: a structure-break down-and-out call valuation

The paper develops a down-and-out call option to evaluate the equity of a life insurer. The COVID-19 pandemic challenges captured by the premature feature of the down-and-out call option are also identified as structural breaks incorporated into the contingent claim option. Hedging, shown by the guarantee cover ratio, reflects the insurer’s ability to meet policy commitments. Reinsurance, indicated by the risk retention ratio, distributes insurance risk between the insurer and reinsurer. The insurer engages in those practices aligned with Sustainable Development Goal 3 (SDG 3: good health and well-being). The main findings are as follows. The COVID-19 pandemic harms policyholder protection and deviates from SDG 3 due to financial instability. However, strategic hedging, reinsurance, and government capital injections enhance policy assurances, achieving SDG 3 by increasing payments to policyholders and improving financial stability. Moreover, the risk retention ratio increases during severe COVID-19 periods but decreases with more government capital injections, which can substitute for risk retention. Policy implications suggest that policymakers can mitigate crisis impacts on insurer capacity to fulfill commitments, thereby enhancing life insurance stability and well-being aligned with SDG 3.