IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/jorsoc/v61y2010i8d10.1057_jors.2009.90.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

System Dynamic simulation of treatment policies to address colliding epidemics of tuberculosis, drug resistant tuberculosis and injecting drug users driven HIV in Russia

Author

Listed:
  • R M Lebcir

    (University of Hertfordshire)

  • R A Atun

    (Imperial College London)

  • R J Coker

    (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

Abstract

The explosive increase in the number of people infected with tuberculosis (TB), multi drug resistant tuberculosis (MDRTB), and injecting drug users (IDU) HIV/AIDS has become a serious public health challenge in Russia. The World Health Organization is recommending policies including simultaneous use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) to treat HIV/AIDS and second line drugs to treat MDRTB. We developed a System Dynamics simulation model to represent the dynamic transmission of TB, MDRTB and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The model simulated scenarios regarding MDRTB cure rate and HAART coverage, that is the HIV/AIDS population covered by HAART. The results over a 20-year period indicate that reduction in TB and HIV-associated TB deaths would be negligible for HAART coverage up to 50%. The reduction is only significant for HAART coverage of 70% and above. Similarly, high MDRTB cure rate reduces significantly deaths from TB and MDRTB and this reduction is more important as the HAART coverage is increased.

Suggested Citation

  • R M Lebcir & R A Atun & R J Coker, 2010. "System Dynamic simulation of treatment policies to address colliding epidemics of tuberculosis, drug resistant tuberculosis and injecting drug users driven HIV in Russia," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(8), pages 1238-1248, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:61:y:2010:i:8:d:10.1057_jors.2009.90
    DOI: 10.1057/jors.2009.90
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/jors.2009.90
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/jors.2009.90?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S C Brailsford & V A Lattimer & P Tarnaras & J C Turnbull, 2004. "Emergency and on-demand health care: modelling a large complex system," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(1), pages 34-42, January.
    2. J D Griffiths & Z F Lawson & J E Williams, 2006. "Modelling treatment effects in the HIV/AIDS epidemic," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(12), pages 1413-1424, December.
    3. Homer, J.B. & Hirsch, G.B., 2006. "System dynamics modeling for public health: Background and opportunities," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 96(3), pages 452-458.
    4. Lasry, Arielle & Zaric, Gregory S. & Carter, Michael W., 2007. "Multi-level resource allocation for HIV prevention: A model for developing countries," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(2), pages 786-799, July.
    5. M S Rauner & S C Brailsford & S Flessa, 2005. "Use of discrete-event simulation to evaluate strategies for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in developing countries," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(2), pages 222-233, February.
    6. B C Dangerfield, 1999. "System dynamics applications to European health care issues," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 50(4), pages 345-353, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Negar Darabi & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, 2020. "System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 29-73, January.
    2. A. Sardi & E. Sorano, 2021. "Dynamic Performance Management: An Approach for Managing the Common Goods," Papers 2102.04090, arXiv.org.
    3. Alberto Sardi & Enrico Sorano, 2019. "Dynamic Performance Management: An Approach for Managing the Common Goods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-22, November.
    4. Chang, Angela Y. & Ogbuoji, Osondu & Atun, Rifat & Verguet, Stéphane, 2017. "Dynamic modeling approaches to characterize the functioning of health systems: A systematic review of the literature," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 160-167.
    5. Mohammad Reza Davahli & Waldemar Karwowski & Redha Taiar, 2020. "A System Dynamics Simulation Applied to Healthcare: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-27, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hosking, Michael & Roberts, Stephen & Uzsoy, Reha & Joseph, Talisa M., 2013. "Investigating interventions for increasing colorectal cancer screening: Insights from a simulation model," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 142-155.
    2. Negar Darabi & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, 2020. "System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 29-73, January.
    3. Reda Lebcir & Rifat Atun, 2021. "Resources management impact on neonatal services performance in the United Kingdom: A system dynamics modelling approach," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 793-812, May.
    4. Meimei Wang & Steffen Flessa, 2020. "Modelling Covid-19 under uncertainty: what can we expect?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(5), pages 665-668, July.
    5. Mohammad Reza Davahli & Waldemar Karwowski & Redha Taiar, 2020. "A System Dynamics Simulation Applied to Healthcare: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-27, August.
    6. Edward G. Anderson & David R. Keith & Jose Lopez, 2023. "Opportunities for system dynamics research in operations management for public policy," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(6), pages 1895-1920, June.
    7. M Smits, 2010. "Impact of policy and process design on the performance of intake and treatment processes in mental health care: a system dynamics case study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(10), pages 1437-1445, October.
    8. Weiwei Zhang & Thomas Huggins & Wenwen Zheng & Shiyong Liu & Zhanwei Du & Hongli Zhu & Ahmad Raza & Ahmad Hussen Tareq, 2022. "Assessing the Dynamic Outcomes of Containment Strategies against COVID-19 under Different Public Health Governance Structures: A Comparison between Pakistan and Bangladesh," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-22, July.
    9. White, Leroy & Smith, Honora & Currie, Christine, 2011. "OR in developing countries: A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 1-11, January.
    10. D C Lane & E Husemann, 2008. "System dynamics mapping of acute patient flows," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(2), pages 213-224, February.
    11. Bożena Mielczarek, 2016. "Review of modelling approaches for healthcare simulation," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 26(1), pages 55-72.
    12. Chih-Tung Hsiao & Hui-Hua Huang, 2012. "A causal model for the development of long-term facilities: a case in Taiwan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 471-481, February.
    13. Chang, Pao-Long & Ho, Shu-Ping & Hsu, Chiung-Wen, 2013. "Dynamic simulation of government subsidy policy effects on solar water heaters installation in Taiwan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 385-396.
    14. Karen Minyard & Tina A. Smith & Richard Turner & Bobby Milstein & Lori Solomon, 2018. "Community and programmatic factors influencing effective use of system dynamic models," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 154-171, January.
    15. Steffen Flessa, 2009. "Cost effectiveness of antiretrovirals — long term or short term?," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 225-227, December.
    16. Bianca Cezara Archip & Ioan Banatean-Dunea & Dacinia Crina Petrescu & Ruxandra Malina Petrescu-Mag, 2023. "Determinants of Food Waste in Cluj-Napoca (Romania): A Community-Based System Dynamics Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-22, January.
    17. Hazhir Rahmandad, 2012. "Impact of Growth Opportunities and Competition on Firm-Level Capability Development Trade-offs," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(1), pages 138-154, February.
    18. De Boeck, Kim & Decouttere, Catherine & Jónasson, Jónas Oddur & Vandaele, Nico, 2022. "Vaccine supply chains in resource-limited settings: Mitigating the impact of rainy season disruptions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(1), pages 300-317.
    19. Erika Palmer, 2018. "The Heavy Cost of Care: Systemic Challenges in Norwegian Work Absenteeism," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-17, June.
    20. Sanjib Saha & Jonas Nordstrom & Ulf-G Gerdtham & Irene Mattisson & Peter M Nilsson & Peter Scarborough, 2019. "Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality by Achieving Healthy Dietary Goals for the Swedish Population: A Macro-Simulation Modelling Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-11, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:61:y:2010:i:8:d:10.1057_jors.2009.90. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.