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Modelling treatment effects in the HIV/AIDS epidemic

Author

Listed:
  • J D Griffiths

    (Cardiff University, South Glamorgan)

  • Z F Lawson

    (Cardiff University, South Glamorgan)

  • J E Williams

    (Cardiff University, South Glamorgan)

Abstract

Advances in recent treatments for HIV/AIDS patients have shown dramatic outcomes in extending the incubation period and AIDS survival time, while also providing significant improvements in the quality of patients' lives. A compartmental model is proposed to analyse the effects of the various treatment regimens which have been introduced. The results produced are in good agreement with routinely collected data relating to levels of HIV/AIDS incidence and prevalence in the UK homosexual population. Some parameter values within the model are obtained from surveys, census results, etc, but others are derived using a maximum likelihood estimation procedure. Finally, the model is used to project levels of incidence and prevalence over the next few years, and to investigate several possible scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • J D Griffiths & Z F Lawson & J E Williams, 2006. "Modelling treatment effects in the HIV/AIDS epidemic," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(12), pages 1413-1424, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:57:y:2006:i:12:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602120
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602120
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Griffiths, Jeff & Lowrie, Dawn & Williams, Janet, 2000. "An age-structured model for the AIDS epidemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-14, July.
    2. Carla Rossi & Giuseppe Schinaia, 1998. "The Mover-Stayer Model for the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Action," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 127-143, June.
    3. Caroline A. Sabin & Christine A. Lee & Andrew N. Phillips, 1994. "The Use of Backcalculation to Estimate the Prevalence of Severe Immunodeficiency Induced by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus in England and Wales," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 157(1), pages 41-56, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lane, David & Husemann, Elke & Holland, Darren & Khaled, Abdul, 2019. "Understanding foodborne transmission mechanisms for Norovirus: A study for the UK's Food Standards Agency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(2), pages 721-736.
    2. R M Lebcir & R A Atun & R J Coker, 2010. "System Dynamic simulation of treatment policies to address colliding epidemics of tuberculosis, drug resistant tuberculosis and injecting drug users driven HIV in Russia," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(8), pages 1238-1248, August.

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