IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/rcorpf/v13y2024i2p583-624..html

The Burden of National Debt: Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions

Author

Listed:
  • Ruchith Dissanayake
  • Yanhui Wu
  • Huizhong Zhang

Abstract

Increases in government debt are associated with a reduction in the yield spread between high-grade corporate bonds and long-term Treasuries and an increase in fiscal uncertainty. Consequently, increases in government debt significantly reduce the firm’s likelihood of acquisition. The effect is stronger among firms whose debt is a closer substitute for Treasuries and firms with greater exposure to fiscal uncertainty. A positive change in government debt motivates acquirers to avoid cash financing or more irreversible deals. The average deal quality is lower during periods of rising public debt, consistent with heightened fiscal uncertainty impeding monitoring and fostering “bad” deals. (JEL D80, E22, E62, G18, G34, G38).

Suggested Citation

  • Ruchith Dissanayake & Yanhui Wu & Huizhong Zhang, 2024. "The Burden of National Debt: Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 583-624.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:rcorpf:v:13:y:2024:i:2:p:583-624.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rcfs/cfac018
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello, 2007. "Financial Constraints, Asset Tangibility, and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1429-1460, 2007 12.
    2. Alberto Alesina, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(3), pages 651-678.
    3. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Corrigendum: Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 320-322, August.
    4. Andres Almazan & Adolfo De Motta & Sheridan Titman & Vahap Uysal, 2010. "Financial Structure, Acquisition Opportunities, and Firm Locations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 529-563, April.
    5. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    6. Kenneth R. Ahern & Jarrad Harford, 2014. "The Importance of Industry Links in Merger Waves," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 527-576, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tung Nguyen & Dimitris Petmezas & Nikolaos Karampatsas, 2023. "Does Terrorism Affect Acquisitions?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 4134-4168, July.
    2. Bonaime, Alice & Gulen, Huseyin & Ion, Mihai, 2018. "Does policy uncertainty affect mergers and acquisitions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 531-558.
    3. Mona Yaghoubi & Reza Yaghoubi, 2024. "The Ups and Downs of Oil Prices: Asymmetric Impacts of Oil Price Volatility on Corporate Environmental Responsibility," Working Papers in Economics 24/11, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    4. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, April.
    5. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," AMSE Working Papers 2308, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    6. Hitesh Doshi & Praveen Kumar & Vijay Yerramilli, 2018. "Uncertainty, Capital Investment, and Risk Management," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(12), pages 5769-5786, December.
    7. Giovanni Carnazza, 2024. "The Impact of the Social Mood on the Italian Sovereign Debt Market: A Twitter Perspective," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 10(1), pages 125-154, March.
    8. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Uncertainty before and during COVID‐19: A survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 821-864, July.
    9. Vural-Yavaş, Çiğdem, 2020. "Corporate risk-taking in developed countries: The influence of economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Berg, Tim Oliver, 2019. "Business Uncertainty And The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In Germany," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1442-1470, June.
    11. Caixe, Daniel Ferreira, 2022. "Corporate governance and investment sensitivity to policy uncertainty in Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    12. Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2020. "Political Cycles and Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(11), pages 4011-4045.
    13. Nguyen, Bao H. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Tran, Trung Duc, 2022. "Uncertainty-dependent and sign-dependent effects of oil market shocks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    14. Dorine Boumans & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt, 2021. "The Global Economic Impact of Politicians: Evidence from an International Survey RCT," CESifo Working Paper Series 8833, CESifo.
    15. Reif Magnus, 2021. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and forecasting macroeconomic aggregates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-20, April.
    16. Siyu Zhang & Chao Lu, 2024. "Non‐executive directors and corporate risk‐taking: Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 64(S1), pages 5069-5106, December.
    17. Yung, Kenneth & Cai, Qiuye & Li, Deqing Diane, 2023. "Greasing the wheels of irreversible investment: International evidence on the economic effects of corruption," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    18. Zidong An & Salem Abo‐Zaid & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2023. "Inattention and the impact of monetary policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 623-643, June.
    19. Dodge Cahan & Niklas Potrafke, 2021. "The Democrat-Republican presidential growth gap and the partisan balance of the state governments," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(3), pages 577-601, December.
    20. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Juan Manuel Figueres, 2020. "Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillovers in Booms and Busts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(1), pages 125-155, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:rcorpf:v:13:y:2024:i:2:p:583-624.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/rcfs .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.