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Longer-term structural transitions and short-term macroeconomic adjustment: quantitative implications for the global financial system

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  • Warwick Mc
  • David Vines

Abstract

This paper provides quantitative modelling of the effect of three longer-term global transitions: the global demographic transition involving a marked reduction in population growth; a long-term slowdown in productivity growth which may continue, or may conceivably be reversed; and the disruption in the global economy due to increasing climate shocks and the implementation of climate policies that will be needed to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. We study the global investment needs to which these transitions will lead. We demonstrate that these investment needs will be both asymmetric across countries and over time. This asymmetry will lead to potentially large changes in trade flows and significant financial capital flows across national borders, and also to substantial real exchange changes and interest rate movements. The resulting large movements in international capital flows will have significant implications for the global financial system, which we demonstrate at the country and regional level.

Suggested Citation

  • Warwick Mc & David Vines, 2023. "Longer-term structural transitions and short-term macroeconomic adjustment: quantitative implications for the global financial system," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 39(2), pages 245-266.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:39:y:2023:i:2:p:245-266.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oxrep/grad004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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