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The Economic Impact of the Pandemic in Rwanda: An Analysis of Firm-Level VAT Data

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  • Giulia Mascagni
  • Adrienne Lees

Abstract

There are substantial differences in the spread of the covid-19 pandemic and policy responses to it between high- and low-income countries. While evidence on the former is growing, there remain more unanswered questions on the latter. This paper addresses this gap by providing insights on the impact of the pandemic in Rwanda, based on firm-level administrative data from Value Added Tax (VAT) returns. We find that VAT sales in 2020 declined by 11.4 % compared to 2019. These losses are particularly associated with a lockdown imposed around April 2020, after which sales quickly rebounded to pre-crisis levels once restrictions were lifted. In absolute terms, the economic cost is concentrated among the largest firms. However, small firms have been most affected in proportional terms. Disaggregating our results further, we show that firms in accommodation and food, transport services, wholesale and retail trade, as well as those registered in the capital, have been particularly affected by the crisis. Overall, the decline in sales translated to a similarly large percentage loss in VAT revenue for the government.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulia Mascagni & Adrienne Lees, 2023. "The Economic Impact of the Pandemic in Rwanda: An Analysis of Firm-Level VAT Data," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 32(3), pages 209-236.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:32:y:2023:i:3:p:209-236.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joel Slemrod, 2019. "Tax Compliance and Enforcement," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(4), pages 904-954, December.
    2. Giulia Mascagni, 2018. "From The Lab To The Field: A Review Of Tax Experiments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 273-301, April.
    3. Raymundo M. Campos-Vazquez & Gerardo Esquivel, 2021. "Consumption and geographic mobility in pandemic times. Evidence from Mexico," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 353-371, June.
    4. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Michael Stepner & The Opportunity Insights Team, 2020. "The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data," NBER Working Papers 27431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Eva‐Maria Egger & Sam Jones & Patricia Justino & Ivan Manhique & Ricardo Santos, 2023. "Africa's lockdown dilemma: High poverty and low trust," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 1648-1666, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Administrative data; COVID-19; economic shock; VAT sales; JEL classification: H25; H32; H61; O12;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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