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Towards a Rule-based Approach to Monetary Policy Evaluation in Sub-Saharan Africa-super- †

  • Stephen A. O'Connell
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    I review the three-equation AS/IS/MP model that is at the core of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models in use within central banks in the industrial countries. Monetary policy (MP) rules play a central role in these models, and alternative rules can be compared in terms of their implications for the economy's dynamic adjustment to shocks. I discuss the advantages of DSGE modelling in low-income countries and show how interest-rate rules can be adapted to reflect the balance-sheet instruments widely used among African countries. I also identify features of the African economic environment that are poorly captured�by existing models, including a large and volatile food sector, imperfect capital mobility and a credit channel for monetary policy. To illustrate the DSGE approach, I develop a model in which food supply shocks play a key role in inflation dynamics. I show that private storage can generate serial correlation of food price inflation when food price shocks are serially uncorrelated. Copyright 2011 The author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email:, Oxford University Press.

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    Article provided by Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) in its journal Journal of African Economies.

    Volume (Year): 20 (2011)
    Issue (Month): suppl_2 (May)
    Pages: -ii66

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:20:y:2011:i:suppl_2:p:-ii66
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    1. Brito, Ricardo D. & Bystedt, Brianne, 2010. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: Panel evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 198-210, March.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier J & Galí, Jordi, 2005. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 5375, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Adam, Christopher S. & Buffie, Edward & O'Connell, Stephen & Pattillo, Catherine, 2008. "Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa," Working Paper Series RP2008/77, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    5. A. Senhadji Semlali & Mohsin S. Khan, 2000. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/110, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 347, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    7. Shanaka J. Peiris & Régis Barnichon, 2007. "Sources of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 07/32, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Inci Ötker & David Vávra & Francisco F. Vázquez & Luis Ignacio Jácome & Karl Friedrich Habermeier & Kotaro Ishi & Alessandro Giustiniani & Turgut Kisinbay, 2009. "Inflation Pressures and Monetary Policy Options in Emerging and Developing Countries—A Cross Regional Perspective," IMF Working Papers 09/1, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Asea, Patrick K & Reinhart, Carmen M, 1996. "Le Prix de l'Argent: How (Not) to Deal with Capital Inflows," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 5(3), pages 231-71, October.
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