IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/cjrecs/v13y2020i1p153-173..html

Are machines stealing our jobs?

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Gentili
  • Fabiano Compagnucci
  • Mauro Gallegati
  • Enzo Valentini

Abstract

This study aims to contribute empirical evidence to the debate about the future of work in an increasingly robotised world. We implement a data-driven approach to study the technological transition in six leading Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. First, we perform a cross-country and cross-sector cluster analysis based on the OECD-STAN database. Second, using the International Federation of Robotics database, we bridge these results with those regarding the sectoral density of robots. We show that the process of robotisation is industry- and country-sensitive. In the future, participants in the political and academic debate may be split into optimists and pessimists regarding the future of human labour; however, the two stances may not be contradictory.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Gentili & Fabiano Compagnucci & Mauro Gallegati & Enzo Valentini, 2020. "Are machines stealing our jobs?," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 13(1), pages 153-173.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:cjrecs:v:13:y:2020:i:1:p:153-173.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cjres/rsz025
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce C. & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Mobility constraints, productivity trends, and extended crises," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 375-393.
    2. David Autor & Anna Salomons, 2018. "Is Automation Labor-Displacing? Productivity Growth, Employment, and the Labor Share," NBER Working Papers 24871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Melanie Arntz & Terry Gregory & Ulrich Zierahn, 2016. "The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 189, OECD Publishing.
    4. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    5. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1279-1333.
    6. Valeria Cirillo & Mario Pianta & Leopoldo Nascia, 2015. "The Dynamics of Skills: Technology and Business Cycles," LEM Papers Series 2015/30, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Compagnucci, Fabiano & Gentili, Andrea & Valentini, Enzo & Gallegati, Mauro, 2021. "Have jobs and wages stopped rising? Productivity and structural change in advanced countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 412-430.
    8. Zsófia L. Bárány & Christian Siegel, 2018. "Job Polarization and Structural Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 57-89, January.
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4t83lre9hm91sq006n4940n19s is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Daron Acemoglu, 2015. "Localised and Biased Technologies: Atkinson and Stiglitz's New View, Induced Innovations, and Directed Technological Change," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(583), pages 443-463, March.
    11. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    12. Steve Bradley & Jill Johnes & Allan Little, 2010. "Measurement And Determinants Of Efficiency And Productivity In The Further Education Sector In England," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 1-30, January.
    13. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 7-72, March.
    14. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum & Nicole Woessner, 2018. "Adjusting to Robots: Worker-Level Evidence," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 13, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Fabiano Compagnucci & Andrea Gentili & Enzo Valentini & Mauro Gallegati, 2019. "Robotization and labour dislocation in the manufacturing sectors of OECD countries: a panel VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(57), pages 6127-6138, December.
    16. James Bessen, 2019. "Automation and jobs: when technology boosts employment," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(100), pages 589-626.
    17. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:49:y:2019:i:2018-01:p:1-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Scicchitano, Sergio & Traverso, Silvio & Tundis, Enrico, 2025. "What workers and robots do: An activity-based analysis of the impact of robotization on changes in local employment," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1).
    2. Davide Dottori, 2021. "Robots and employment: evidence from Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 739-795, July.
    3. Tiedtke, Julian, 2024. "Unveiling the Job-Creating and Destroying Effects of Automation through the Lense of Heterogeneity," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302375, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Judith Clifton & Amy Glasmeier & Mia Gray, 2020. "When machines think for us: the consequences for work and place," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 13(1), pages 3-23.
    5. Capello, Roberta & Lenzi, Camilla & Perucca, Giovanni, 2022. "The modern Solow paradox. In search for explanations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 166-180.
    6. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano & Silvio Traverso & Enrico Tundis, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," DEM Working Papers 2021/06, Department of Economics and Management.
    7. Fuchs Martina & Cumbers Andrew, 2023. "Digitalization and Labor Restructuring," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 67(4), pages 173-176, December.
    8. Olubunmi Ipinnaiye & Helena Lenihan & Kevin Mulligan & Justin Doran & Stephen Roper, 2026. "Innovation success in small and larger firms: Does persistence and diversity in R&D matter when building a unique knowledge base?," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1564-1600, June.
    9. Klump, Rainer & Jurkat, Anne & Schneider, Florian, 2021. "Tracking the rise of robots: A survey of the IFR database and its applications," MPRA Paper 107909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Julian Tiedtke, 2025. "Automation, Firm Size and Skill Groups," LEM Papers Series 2025/09, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roberto Antonietti & Luca Cattani & Francesca Gambarotto & Giulio Pedrini, 2021. "Education, routine, and complexity-biased Knowledge Enabling Technologies: Evidence from Emilia-Romagna, Italy," Discussion Paper series in Regional Science & Economic Geography 2021-07, Gran Sasso Science Institute, Social Sciences, revised May 2021.
    2. Enzo Valentini & Fabiano Compagnucci & Mauro Gallegati & Andrea Gentili, 2023. "Robotization, employment, and income: regional asymmetries and long-run policies in the Euro area," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 737-771, July.
    3. Cirillo, Valeria & Evangelista, Rinaldo & Guarascio, Dario & Sostero, Matteo, 2021. "Digitalization, routineness and employment: An exploration on Italian task-based data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    4. Anderton, Robert & Jarvis, Valerie & Labhard, Vincent & Morgan, Julian & Petroulakis, Filippos & Vivian, Lara, 2020. "Virtually everywhere? Digitalisation and the euro area and EU economies," Occasional Paper Series 244, European Central Bank.
    5. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Scicchitano, Sergio & Traverso, Silvio & Tundis, Enrico, 2025. "What workers and robots do: An activity-based analysis of the impact of robotization on changes in local employment," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1).
    6. Gries, Thomas & Naudé, Wim, 2020. "Artificial Intelligence, Income Distribution and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 13606, IZA Network @ LISER.
    7. Songul Tolan & Annarosa Pesole & Fernando Martinez-Plumed & Enrique Fernandez-Macias & José Hernandez-Orallo & Emilia Gomez, 2020. "Measuring the Occupational Impact of AI: Tasks, Cognitive Abilities and AI Benchmarks," JRC Working Papers on Labour, Education and Technology 2020-02, Joint Research Centre.
    8. Jasmine Mondolo, 2022. "The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1027-1068, September.
    9. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Automation, Job Polarisation, and Structural Change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 499-535.
    10. Zhang, Xinchun & Sun, Murong & Liu, Jianxu & Xu, Aijia, 2024. "The nexus between industrial robot and employment in China: The effects of technology substitution and technology creation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    11. Łukasz Arendt & Eugeniusz Kwiatkowski, 2023. "Kontrowersje wokół wpływu nowoczesnych technologii na zatrudnienie i bezrobocie," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 2, pages 195-216.
    12. Ghodsi, Mahdi & Stehrer, Robert & Barišić, Antea, 2024. "Assessing the impact of new technologies on wages and labour income shares," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    13. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Scicchitano, Sergio & Traverso, Silvio & Tundis, Enrico, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," GLO Discussion Paper Series 802, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    14. Chau Tran Bao & Khoi Nguyen Dinh Nguyen & Ha Nguyen Manh & Ngan Nguyen Thi Thuy, 2026. "The Urban-Rural Divide in the Age of Artificial Intelligence: Assessing the Effects of Technology and Automation on Regional Labor Markets," Papers 2606.22833, arXiv.org.
    15. Battisti & M. Del Gatto & A. Gravina & C. Parmeter, 2021. "Robots versus labor skills: a complementarity/substitutability analysis," Working Paper CRENoS 202104, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    16. Goos, Maarten & Rademakers, Emilie & Röttger, Ronja, 2021. "Routine-Biased technical change: Individual-Level evidence from a plant closure," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    17. Montobbio, Fabio & Staccioli, Jacopo & Virgillito, Maria Enrica & Vivarelli, Marco, 2022. "Robots and the origin of their labour-saving impact," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    18. Zhou, Yuwen & Shi, Xin, 2025. "How does digital technology adoption affect corporate employment? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    19. Thomsen, Stephan L, 2018. "Die Rolle der Computerisierung und Digitalisierung für Beschäftigung und Einkommen," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-645, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    20. Yuefeng Xie & Luman Zhao & Yabin Zhang & Zhenguo Wang, 2025. "How Do Robot Applications Affect Corporate Sustainability?—An Analysis Based on Environmental, Social, and Governance Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-29, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:cjrecs:v:13:y:2020:i:1:p:153-173.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/cjres .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.