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A State-Space Approach to Perennial Crop Supply Analysis

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  • Nicholas G. Kalaitzandonakes
  • J. S. Shonkwiler

Abstract

In perennial crop supply analysis, separate estimation of the qualitatively different new planting and replanting decisions is desirable. Commonly, data paucity restricts estimation to a single reduced form equation. This study develops a dynamic unobserved components method where separate estimation of the structural equations is possible in the absence of detailed data on new plantings and replantings. The proposed method is empirically implemented in a case study of the Florida grapefruit industry. In terms of both statistical and forecasting performance, the proposed structural approach is found superior to a single equation reduced form specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas G. Kalaitzandonakes & J. S. Shonkwiler, 1992. "A State-Space Approach to Perennial Crop Supply Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(2), pages 343-352.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:74:y:1992:i:2:p:343-352.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1242488
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Willett, Lois Schertz, 2000. "U.S. Kiwifruit Industry Model: Annual Supply And Monthly Demand," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Mario Cunha, 2010. "Modelling the Cyclical Behaviour of Wine Production in the Douro Region Using a Time-Varying Parameters Approach," Working Papers 2010.1, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    3. Spreen, Thomas H. & Brewster, Charlene & Brown, Mark G., 2002. "The Impact Of Elimination Of The U.S. Orange Juice Tariff On The Market For Processed Orange Products," Policy Briefs 15669, University of Florida, International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center.
    4. Spreen, Thomas H. & Brown, Mark G. & Jauregui, Carlos E., 2008. "Production and Price Effects of New Diseases and Other Challenges Confronting the Processed Orange Industry," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6715, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Elmer, Nicole A. & Thurow, Amy P. & Johnson, Jason L. & Rosson, C. Parr, 2001. "An Ex Ante Assessment of Investments in Texas Grapefruit under Uncertainty," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 391-401, December.
    6. Eli Feinerman & Yacov Tsur, 2014. "Perennial crops under stochastic water supply," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(6), pages 757-766, November.
    7. Franklin, Bradley & Schwabe, Kurt & Knapp, Keith C., 2013. "A Bio-economic Model of Perennial Production with Deficit Irrigation," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150379, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Van Groenendaal, W. J. H. & Vingerhoets, J. W. A., 1995. "Can international commodity agreements work?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 257-278, June.
    9. Zhao, Xin & Brady, Michael P. & Tozer, Peter R., 2015. "Do Farmers Really Plant Apples for Their Income and Cherries for Their Retirement? The Effects of Risk, Scope and Scale on Orchard Land Allocation," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205663, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Davis, Kathy J. & Thornsbury, Suzanne & Ward, Ronald W., 2002. "Consolidation In The Fresh Florida Grapefruit Packing Industry," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19815, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Murray-Prior, Roy B. & Wright, Vic, 2001. "Influence of strategies and heuristics on farmers’ response to change under uncertainty," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 45(4), pages 1-26.
    12. Thornsbury, Suzanne & Davis, Kathy J. & Ward, Ronald W., 2005. "Fresh Grapefruit Supply-Chain Adjustments: Consolidation in Produce Packing?," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 36(3), pages 1-12, November.
    13. Brady, Michael P. & Marsh, Thomas L., 2013. "Do Changes in Orchard Supply Occur at the Intensive or Extensive Margin of the Landowner?," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150452, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Gabrielyan, Gnel & Marsh, Thomas L., 2012. "Domestic and Export Price Formation of U.S. Hops," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124722, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Tozer, Peter R. & Marsh, Thomas L. & Jiang, Xiaojiao, 2014. "Perennial Supply – Substitution in Bearing Acreage Decisions," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170045, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Devadoss, Stephen & Luckstead, Jeff, 2010. "An analysis of apple supply response," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 265-271, March.

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