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APC modeling of the relationship between birth order fertility rates and economic shocks in Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Vakulenko, E.

    (HSE University, Moscow, Russia)

  • Ryzhkina, A.

    (HSE University, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of the relationship between economic shocks and the fertility rate of the first, second and third child in Russia using age-period- cohort (APC) models. Annual data for 39 regions of the Russian Federation for the period from 2004 to 2021 were considered. Rosstat and the Russian Database of Fertility and Mortality CDR NES statistics was used. In this work, for the first time, the most advanced APC-modeling method was used on Russian data - an approach based on mechanisms of interaction between variables (mechanism-based approach), the implementation of which was carried out using intermediate variables (mediators) to identify the effects of age, period and cohort in dynamics of fertility and identifying causal relationships. Mediator for the cohort effect, the ratio of marriages and divorces was used. For the "last period effect" (effect of a "year earlier") - the unemployment rate (total, male and female), as well as an intermediate mediator of the year before the last period effect - investment in fixed capital were employed. In addition we assessed the impact of proxy variables of the "last period" on fertility: federal and regional maternity capital programs, as well as oil and gas revenues of the federal budget. To check the stability of the results "intrinsic estimator" method was used, which allowed decomposing the fertility indicator into the effects of age, period and cohort. The results of the study showed that there was a direct relationship between birth order fertility rates and economic shocks that correspond to the "last year" and "year before the last" periods' effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Vakulenko, E. & Ryzhkina, A., 2024. "APC modeling of the relationship between birth order fertility rates and economic shocks in Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 84-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2024:i:64:p:84-102
    DOI: 10.31737/22212264_2024_3_84-102
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maarten J. Bijlsma & Rhian M. Daniel & Fanny Janssen & Bianca L. De Stavola, 2017. "An Assessment and Extension of the Mechanism-Based Approach to the Identification of Age-Period-Cohort Models," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 721-743, April.
    2. Andrew Cherlin & Erin Cumberworth & S. Philip Morgan & Christopher Wimer, 2013. "The Effects of the Great Recession on Family Structure and Fertility," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 650(1), pages 214-231, November.
    3. Deniz D. Karaman Örsal & Joshua R. Goldstein, 2010. "The increasing importance of economic conditions on fertility," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2010-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Tomas Frejka & Sergei Zakharov, 2013. "The Apparent Failure of Russia's Pronatalist Family Policies," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(4), pages 635-647, December.
    5. Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; birth order of children; negative economic shocks; APC-modeling; unemployment rate; maternity capital; oil and gas revenues;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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