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Protecting the Amazon forest and reducing global warming via agricultural intensification

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio R. Marin

    (University of São Paulo)

  • Alencar J. Zanon

    (Universidade Federal de Santa Maria)

  • Juan P. Monzon

    (University of Nebraska–Lincoln
    National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET))

  • José F. Andrade

    (University of Nebraska–Lincoln
    University of Buenos Aires, IFEVA-CONICET)

  • Evandro H. F. M. Silva

    (University of São Paulo)

  • Gean L. Richter

    (Universidade Federal de Santa Maria)

  • Luis A. S. Antolin

    (University of São Paulo)

  • Bruna S. M. R. Ribeiro

    (Universidade Federal de Santa Maria)

  • Giovana G. Ribas

    (Universidade Federal de Santa Maria)

  • Rafael Battisti

    (Federal University of Goias)

  • Alexandre B. Heinemann

    (EMBRAPA Arroz e Feijão)

  • Patricio Grassini

    (University of Nebraska–Lincoln)

Abstract

The Amazon basin includes 550 Mha covered with rainforests, and 60% of this area is in Brazil. The conversion of rainforest for soybean production raises concerns about how Brazil can reconcile production and environmental goals. Here we investigated the degree to which intensification could help Brazil produce more soybean without further encroachment on the Amazon forest. Our analysis shows that the continuation of current trends in soybean yield and area would lead to the conversion of an additional 5.7 Mha of forests and savannahs during the next 15 years, with an associated 1,955 Mt of CO2e released into the atmosphere. In contrast, the acceleration of yield improvement, coupled with the expansion of soybean area only in areas currently used for livestock production, would allow Brazil to produce 162 Mt of soybean without deforestation and with 58% lower global climate warming relative to that derived from the continuation of current trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio R. Marin & Alencar J. Zanon & Juan P. Monzon & José F. Andrade & Evandro H. F. M. Silva & Gean L. Richter & Luis A. S. Antolin & Bruna S. M. R. Ribeiro & Giovana G. Ribas & Rafael Battisti & Ale, 2022. "Protecting the Amazon forest and reducing global warming via agricultural intensification," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(12), pages 1018-1026, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:5:y:2022:i:12:d:10.1038_s41893-022-00968-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-022-00968-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. ., 2020. "China–Trans-Pacific Ocean Passage: Latin America and the Caribbean," Chapters, in: China’s Global Vision and Actions, chapter 8, pages 139-151, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Chris A. Boulton & Timothy M. Lenton & Niklas Boers, 2022. "Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(3), pages 271-278, March.
    3. Luciana V. Gatti & Luana S. Basso & John B. Miller & Manuel Gloor & Lucas Gatti Domingues & Henrique L. G. Cassol & Graciela Tejada & Luiz E. O. C. Aragão & Carlos Nobre & Wouter Peters & Luciano Mara, 2021. "Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 595(7867), pages 388-393, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Riera, Anton & Duluins, Océane & Antier, Clémentine & Baret, Philippe V., 2025. "Which types of quantitative foresight scenarios to frame the future of food systems? A review," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    2. Barbosa de Andrade Aragão, Rafaela & Bastos Lima, Mairon G. & Burns, Georgette Leah & Ross, Helen & Biggs, Duan, 2024. "‘Greenlash’ and reactionary stakeholders in environmental governance: An analysis of soy farmers against zero deforestation in Brazil," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    3. Dailiang Peng & Bing Zhang & Shijun Zheng & Weimin Ju & Jing M. Chen & Philippe Ciais & Huadong Guo & Yuhao Pan & Le Yu & Yidi Xu & Bin Zhao & Jón Atli Benediktsson & Alfredo R. Huete & Zhou Shi & Yue, 2025. "Newly established forests dominated global carbon sequestration change induced by land cover conversions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Meyfroidt, Patrick & Abeygunawardane, Dilini & Baumann, Matthias & Bey, Adia & Buchadas, Ana & Chiarella, Cristina & Junquera, Victoria & Kronenburg García, Angela & Kuemmerle, Tobias & le Polain de W, 2024. "Explaining the emergence of land-use frontiers," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21.
    5. Neik, T. X. & Siddique, K. H. M. & Mayes, S. & Edwards, D. & Batley, J. & Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe & Song, B. K. & Massawe, F., 2023. "Diversifying agrifood systems to ensure global food security following the Russia–Ukraine crisis," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 1-7:1124640.

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