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Newly established forests dominated global carbon sequestration change induced by land cover conversions

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Listed:
  • Dailiang Peng

    (International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Bing Zhang

    (International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals
    Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Shijun Zheng

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Weimin Ju

    (Nanjing University)

  • Jing M. Chen

    (University of Toronto)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers)

  • Huadong Guo

    (International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals
    Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yuhao Pan

    (International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Le Yu

    (Tsinghua University
    Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds
    Tsinghua University (Department of Earth System Science)- Xi’an Institute of Surveying and Mapping Joint Research Center for Next-Generation Smart Mapping)

  • Yidi Xu

    (CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers)

  • Bin Zhao

    (Shangdong Agricultural University)

  • Jón Atli Benediktsson

    (University of Iceland)

  • Alfredo R. Huete

    (Faculty of Science)

  • Zhou Shi

    (Zhejiang University)

  • Yueming Hu

    (Hainan University)

  • Liangyun Liu

    (International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Fang Chen

    (International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Miaogen Shen

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Lei Huang

    (International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Xiaoyang Zhang

    (South Dakota State University)

Abstract

Land cover conversions (LCC) have substantially reshaped terrestrial carbon dynamics, yet their net impact on carbon sequestration remains uncertain. Here, we use the remote sensing-driven BEPS model and high-resolution HILDA+ data to quantify LCC-induced changes in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) from 1981 to 2019. Despite global forest loss and cropland/urban expansion, LCC led to a net carbon gain of 229 Tg C. Afforestation and reforestation increased NEP by 1559 Tg C, largely offsetting deforestation-driven losses (−1544 Tg C), with newly established forests in the Northern Hemisphere driving gains that counterbalanced emissions from tropical deforestation. Regional carbon gains were concentrated in East Asia, North America, and Europe, while losses occurred mainly in the Amazon and Southeast Asia. Although smaller in area, newly established forests exhibited higher sequestration efficiency than degraded older forests, emphasizing the role of forest age in shaping global carbon sink dynamics. These findings highlight the critical importance of afforestation, forest management, and spatially informed land-use strategies in strengthening carbon sinks and supporting global carbon neutrality goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Dailiang Peng & Bing Zhang & Shijun Zheng & Weimin Ju & Jing M. Chen & Philippe Ciais & Huadong Guo & Yuhao Pan & Le Yu & Yidi Xu & Bin Zhao & Jón Atli Benediktsson & Alfredo R. Huete & Zhou Shi & Yue, 2025. "Newly established forests dominated global carbon sequestration change induced by land cover conversions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-61956-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-61956-y
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