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Uncertainty in non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation contributes to ambiguity in global climate policy feasibility

Author

Listed:
  • Mathijs Harmsen

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Charlotte Tabak

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Lena Höglund-Isaksson

    (Pollution Management Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Florian Humpenöder

    (Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam)

  • Pallav Purohit

    (Pollution Management Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Detlef Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

Abstract

Despite its projected crucial role in stringent, future global climate policy, non-CO2 greenhouse gas (NCGG) mitigation remains a large uncertain factor in climate research. A revision of the estimated mitigation potential has implications for the feasibility of global climate policy to reach the Paris Agreement climate goals. Here, we provide a systematic bottom-up estimate of the total uncertainty in NCGG mitigation, by developing ‘optimistic’, ‘default’ and ‘pessimistic’ long-term NCGG marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves, based on a comprehensive literature review of mitigation options. The global 1.5-degree climate target is found to be out of reach under pessimistic MAC assumptions, as is the 2-degree target under high emission assumptions. In a 2-degree scenario, MAC uncertainty translates into a large projected range in relative NCGG reduction (40–58%), carbon budget (±120 Gt CO2) and policy costs (±16%). Partly, the MAC uncertainty signifies a gap that could be bridged by human efforts, but largely it indicates uncertainty in technical limitations.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathijs Harmsen & Charlotte Tabak & Lena Höglund-Isaksson & Florian Humpenöder & Pallav Purohit & Detlef Vuuren, 2023. "Uncertainty in non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation contributes to ambiguity in global climate policy feasibility," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-38577-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38577-4
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