IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v12y2021i1d10.1038_s41467-021-27031-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected

Author

Listed:
  • Michelle R. McCrystall

    (University of Manitoba)

  • Julienne Stroeve

    (University of Manitoba
    University College London
    Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Mark Serreze

    (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Bruce C. Forbes

    (University of Lapland)

  • James A. Screen

    (University of Exeter)

Abstract

As the Arctic continues to warm faster than the rest of the planet, evidence mounts that the region is experiencing unprecedented environmental change. The hydrological cycle is projected to intensify throughout the twenty-first century, with increased evaporation from expanding open water areas and more precipitation. The latest projections from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) point to more rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice loss by the year 2100 than in previous projections, and consequently, larger and faster changes in the hydrological cycle. Arctic precipitation (rainfall) increases more rapidly in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 due to greater global warming and poleward moisture transport, greater Arctic amplification and sea-ice loss and increased sensitivity of precipitation to Arctic warming. The transition from a snow- to rain-dominated Arctic in the summer and autumn is projected to occur decades earlier and at a lower level of global warming, potentially under 1.5 °C, with profound climatic, ecosystem and socio-economic impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Michelle R. McCrystall & Julienne Stroeve & Mark Serreze & Bruce C. Forbes & James A. Screen, 2021. "New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-27031-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27031-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27031-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-021-27031-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefan Hofer & Charlotte Lang & Charles Amory & Christoph Kittel & Alison Delhasse & Andrew Tedstone & Xavier Fettweis, 2020. "Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. L. Xu & R. B. Myneni & F. S. Chapin III & T. V. Callaghan & J. E. Pinzon & C. J. Tucker & Z. Zhu & J. Bi & P. Ciais & H. Tømmervik & E. S. Euskirchen & B. C. Forbes & S. L. Piao & B. T. Anderson & S. , 2013. "Temperature and vegetation seasonality diminishment over northern lands," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(6), pages 581-586, June.
    3. T. P. Barnett & J. C. Adam & D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005. "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 303-309, November.
    4. Adrian E. Raftery & Alec Zimmer & Dargan M. W. Frierson & Richard Startz & Peiran Liu, 2017. "Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(9), pages 637-641, September.
    5. W. R. Berghuijs & R. A. Woods & M. Hrachowitz, 2014. "A precipitation shift from snow towards rain leads to a decrease in streamflow," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(7), pages 583-586, July.
    6. Xiangdong Zhang & Juanxiong He & Jing Zhang & Igor Polyakov & Rüdiger Gerdes & Jun Inoue & Peili Wu, 2013. "Enhanced poleward moisture transport and amplified northern high-latitude wetting trend," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 47-51, January.
    7. Yoshihiro Iijima & Alexander N. Fedorov & Hotaek Park & Kazuyoshi Suzuki & Hironori Yabuki & Trofim C. Maximov & Tetsuo Ohata, 2010. "Abrupt increases in soil temperatures following increased precipitation in a permafrost region, central Lena River basin, Russia," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(1), pages 30-41, January.
    8. R. Bintanja & F. M. Selten, 2014. "Future increases in Arctic precipitation linked to local evaporation and sea-ice retreat," Nature, Nature, vol. 509(7501), pages 479-482, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Efrén López-Blanco & Elmer Topp-Jørgensen & Torben R. Christensen & Morten Rasch & Henrik Skov & Marie F. Arndal & M. Syndonia Bret-Harte & Terry V. Callaghan & Niels M. Schmidt, 2024. "Towards an increasingly biased view on Arctic change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(2), pages 152-155, February.
    2. Jacqueline Oehri & Gabriela Schaepman-Strub & Jin-Soo Kim & Raleigh Grysko & Heather Kropp & Inge Grünberg & Vitalii Zemlianskii & Oliver Sonnentag & Eugénie S. Euskirchen & Merin Reji Chacko & Giovan, 2022. "Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Chinn, Sarah M. & Liston, Glen E. & Wilson, Ryan R., 2023. "Assessing past and future climatic influences on the availability of polar bear maternal denning habitat on Wrangel Island," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 484(C).
    4. Shawn M. Chartrand & A. Mark Jellinek & Antero Kukko & Anna Grau Galofre & Gordon R. Osinski & Shannon Hibbard, 2023. "High Arctic channel incision modulated by climate change and the emergence of polygonal ground," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. S . K. Oni & F. Mieres & M. N. Futter & H. Laudon, 2017. "Soil temperature responses to climate change along a gradient of upland–riparian transect in boreal forest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 27-41, July.
    2. Kaustubh Anil Salvi & Mukesh Kumar, 2024. "Imprint of urbanization on snow precipitation over the continental USA," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Rajesh R. Shrestha & Barrie R. Bonsal & James M. Bonnyman & Alex J. Cannon & Mohammad Reza Najafi, 2021. "Heterogeneous snowpack response and snow drought occurrence across river basins of northwestern North America under 1.0°C to 4.0°C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Rúna Í. Magnússon & Alexandra Hamm & Sergey V. Karsanaev & Juul Limpens & David Kleijn & Andrew Frampton & Trofim C. Maximov & Monique M. P. D. Heijmans, 2022. "Extremely wet summer events enhance permafrost thaw for multiple years in Siberian tundra," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Keyvan Malek & Patrick Reed & Jennifer Adam & Tina Karimi & Michael Brady, 2020. "Water rights shape crop yield and revenue volatility tradeoffs for adaptation in snow dependent systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Aynur Şensoy & Gökçen Uysal & Y. Oğulcan Doğan & H. Soykan Civelek, 2023. "The Future Snow Potential and Snowmelt Runoff of Mesopotamian Water Tower," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-22, April.
    7. Molini, A. & Talkner, P. & Katul, G.G. & Porporato, A., 2011. "First passage time statistics of Brownian motion with purely time dependent drift and diffusion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 1841-1852.
    8. Xiuchen Wu & Hongyan Liu & Dali Guo & Oleg A Anenkhonov & Natalya K Badmaeva & Denis V Sandanov, 2012. "Growth Decline Linked to Warming-Induced Water Limitation in Hemi-Boreal Forests," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(8), pages 1-12, August.
    9. Hengzhou Xu & Chuanrong Zhang & Weidong Li & Wenjing Zhang & Hongchun Yin, 2018. "Economic growth and carbon emission in China:a spatial econometric Kuznets curve?," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(1), pages 11-28.
    10. Dalei Hao & Gautam Bisht & Hailong Wang & Donghui Xu & Huilin Huang & Yun Qian & L. Ruby Leung, 2023. "A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Diana R. Gergel & Bart Nijssen & John T. Abatzoglou & Dennis P. Lettenmaier & Matt R. Stumbaugh, 2017. "Effects of climate change on snowpack and fire potential in the western USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 287-299, March.
    12. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.
    13. Leiwen Jiang & Karen Hardee, 2011. "How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(2), pages 287-312, April.
    14. Schaefli, Bettina & Manso, Pedro & Fischer, Mauro & Huss, Matthias & Farinotti, Daniel, 2017. "The role of glacier retreat for Swiss hydropower production," Earth Arxiv 7z96d, Center for Open Science.
    15. Haiyan Fang & Zemeng Fan, 2021. "Impacts of climate and land use changes on water and sediment yields for the black soil region, northeastern China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 6259-6278, April.
    16. Jinting Guo & Yuanman Hu & Zaiping Xiong & Xiaolu Yan & Chunlin Li & Rencang Bu, 2017. "Variations in Growing-Season NDVI and Its Response to Permafrost Degradation in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-15, April.
    17. Hanjra, Munir A. & Qureshi, M. Ejaz, 2010. "Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 365-377, October.
    18. Chen, Zi-yue & Huang, Zhen-hai & Nie, Pu-yan, 2018. "Industrial characteristics and consumption efficiency from a nexus perspective – Based on Anhui’s Empirical Statistics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 281-290.
    19. R. R. McCrary & L. O. Mearns & M. Hughes & S. Biner & M. S. Bukovsky, 2022. "Projections of North American snow from NA-CORDEX and their uncertainties, with a focus on model resolution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-25, February.
    20. Donna, Javier & Espin-Sanchez, Jose, 2014. "The Illiquidity of Water Markets," MPRA Paper 55078, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-27031-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.