IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i8p6646-d1123443.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Future Snow Potential and Snowmelt Runoff of Mesopotamian Water Tower

Author

Listed:
  • Aynur Şensoy

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Eskisehir Technical University, Eskişehir 26555, Türkiye)

  • Gökçen Uysal

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Eskisehir Technical University, Eskişehir 26555, Türkiye)

  • Y. Oğulcan Doğan

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Eskisehir Technical University, Eskişehir 26555, Türkiye)

  • H. Soykan Civelek

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Eskisehir Technical University, Eskişehir 26555, Türkiye)

Abstract

Mountainous basins are frequently called “natural water towers” because they supply essential water to downstream regions for irrigation, industrial–municipal use, and hydropower generation. The possible implications of climate change on water supplies have gained prominence in recent years, particularly in snow-dominated mountainous basins. The Euphrates River, a snow-fed transboundary river that originates from the Eastern part of Türkiye with several large dam reservoirs downstream, was chosen within this scope. The study reveals the impact of climate change on two snow-dominated headwaters, namely Karasu and Murat, which have a basin area of 41,109 km 2 . The impact of climate change is assessed across runoff regimes and snow dynamics for future periods (2024–2099). Global Climate Model (GCM) data sets (CNRM-CM5, IPSL-CM5A, EC-EARTH, MPI-ESM-LR, NorESM1-M, HadGEM2-ES) were downscaled by Regional Circulation Models (RCMs), provided from CMIP5 EURO-CORDEX domain for climate projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Future projections of runoff and snow variables are predicted by two conceptual hydrological models, HBV and HEC-HMS. The results indicate a dramatic shrink in snow cover extents (>65%) and snow duration (25%), a decrease in snow water equivalent (>50%), and a timely shift (up to a month) in peak runoff through early spring in the runoff hydrograph for the last future period (2075–2099). The overall assessment shows that operations of downstream water systems should be reconsidered for future changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Aynur Şensoy & Gökçen Uysal & Y. Oğulcan Doğan & H. Soykan Civelek, 2023. "The Future Snow Potential and Snowmelt Runoff of Mesopotamian Water Tower," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-22, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:8:p:6646-:d:1123443
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/8/6646/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/8/6646/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aysegül Kibaroglu & Tugba Maden, 2014. "An analysis of the causes of water crisis in the Euphrates-Tigris river basin," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 347-353, December.
    2. T. P. Barnett & J. C. Adam & D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005. "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 303-309, November.
    3. W. R. Berghuijs & R. A. Woods & M. Hrachowitz, 2014. "A precipitation shift from snow towards rain leads to a decrease in streamflow," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(7), pages 583-586, July.
    4. Deniz Bozkurt & Maisa Rojas & Juan Pablo Boisier & Jonás Valdivieso, 2018. "Projected hydroclimate changes over Andean basins in central Chile from downscaled CMIP5 models under the low and high emission scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 131-147, October.
    5. Noah S. Diffenbaugh & Martin Scherer & Moetasim Ashfaq, 2013. "Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 379-384, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. S . K. Oni & F. Mieres & M. N. Futter & H. Laudon, 2017. "Soil temperature responses to climate change along a gradient of upland–riparian transect in boreal forest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 27-41, July.
    2. Kaustubh Anil Salvi & Mukesh Kumar, 2024. "Imprint of urbanization on snow precipitation over the continental USA," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Rajesh R. Shrestha & Barrie R. Bonsal & James M. Bonnyman & Alex J. Cannon & Mohammad Reza Najafi, 2021. "Heterogeneous snowpack response and snow drought occurrence across river basins of northwestern North America under 1.0°C to 4.0°C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Michelle R. McCrystall & Julienne Stroeve & Mark Serreze & Bruce C. Forbes & James A. Screen, 2021. "New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Keyvan Malek & Patrick Reed & Jennifer Adam & Tina Karimi & Michael Brady, 2020. "Water rights shape crop yield and revenue volatility tradeoffs for adaptation in snow dependent systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Molini, A. & Talkner, P. & Katul, G.G. & Porporato, A., 2011. "First passage time statistics of Brownian motion with purely time dependent drift and diffusion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 1841-1852.
    7. Xiuchen Wu & Hongyan Liu & Dali Guo & Oleg A Anenkhonov & Natalya K Badmaeva & Denis V Sandanov, 2012. "Growth Decline Linked to Warming-Induced Water Limitation in Hemi-Boreal Forests," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(8), pages 1-12, August.
    8. Hengzhou Xu & Chuanrong Zhang & Weidong Li & Wenjing Zhang & Hongchun Yin, 2018. "Economic growth and carbon emission in China:a spatial econometric Kuznets curve?," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(1), pages 11-28.
    9. Dalei Hao & Gautam Bisht & Hailong Wang & Donghui Xu & Huilin Huang & Yun Qian & L. Ruby Leung, 2023. "A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Diana R. Gergel & Bart Nijssen & John T. Abatzoglou & Dennis P. Lettenmaier & Matt R. Stumbaugh, 2017. "Effects of climate change on snowpack and fire potential in the western USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 287-299, March.
    11. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.
    12. Leiwen Jiang & Karen Hardee, 2011. "How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(2), pages 287-312, April.
    13. Schaefli, Bettina & Manso, Pedro & Fischer, Mauro & Huss, Matthias & Farinotti, Daniel, 2017. "The role of glacier retreat for Swiss hydropower production," Earth Arxiv 7z96d, Center for Open Science.
    14. Haiyan Fang & Zemeng Fan, 2021. "Impacts of climate and land use changes on water and sediment yields for the black soil region, northeastern China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 6259-6278, April.
    15. Hanjra, Munir A. & Qureshi, M. Ejaz, 2010. "Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 365-377, October.
    16. Chen, Zi-yue & Huang, Zhen-hai & Nie, Pu-yan, 2018. "Industrial characteristics and consumption efficiency from a nexus perspective – Based on Anhui’s Empirical Statistics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 281-290.
    17. R. R. McCrary & L. O. Mearns & M. Hughes & S. Biner & M. S. Bukovsky, 2022. "Projections of North American snow from NA-CORDEX and their uncertainties, with a focus on model resolution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-25, February.
    18. Donna, Javier & Espin-Sanchez, Jose, 2014. "The Illiquidity of Water Markets," MPRA Paper 55078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Hongmin An & Cunde Xiao & Minghu Ding, 2019. "The Spatial Pattern of Ski Areas and Its Driving Factors in China: A Strategy for Healthy Development of the Ski Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, June.
    20. Calvo, Rubén & Álamos, Nicolás & Huneeus, Nicolás & O'Ryan, Raúl, 2022. "Energy poverty effects on policy-based PM2.5 emissions mitigation in southern and central Chile," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:8:p:6646-:d:1123443. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.