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Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events

Author

Listed:
  • Emanuele Bevacqua

    (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ)

  • Giuseppe Zappa

    (National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC))

  • Flavio Lehner

    (Cornell University
    Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Jakob Zscheischler

    (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ
    Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern
    Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern)

Abstract

Compound hot–dry events—co-occurring hot and dry extremes—frequently cause damages to human and natural systems, often exceeding separate impacts from heatwaves and droughts. Strong increases in the occurrence of these events are projected with warming, but associated uncertainties remain large and poorly understood. Here, using climate model large ensembles, we show that mean precipitation trends exclusively modulate the future occurrence of compound hot–dry events over land. This occurs because local warming will be large enough that future droughts will always coincide with at least moderately hot extremes, even in a 2 °C warmer world. By contrast, precipitation trends are often weak and equivocal in sign, depending on the model, region and internal climate variability. Therefore, constraining regional precipitation trends will also constrain future compound hot–dry events. These results help to assess future frequencies of other compound extremes characterized by strongly different trends in the drivers.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuele Bevacqua & Giuseppe Zappa & Flavio Lehner & Jakob Zscheischler, 2022. "Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(4), pages 350-355, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01309-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01309-5
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    1. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Samuel Lüthi & Christopher Fairless & Erich M. Fischer & Noah Scovronick & Armstrong & Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho & Yue Leon Guo & Yuming Guo & Yasushi Honda & Veronika Huber & Jan K, 2023. "Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Jun Li & Yao Zhang & Emanuele Bevacqua & Jakob Zscheischler & Trevor F. Keenan & Xu Lian & Sha Zhou & Hongying Zhang & Mingzhu He & Shilong Piao, 2024. "Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Jacob Kim-Sherman & Lee Seltzer, 2024. "Clustering in Natural Disaster Damages," Staff Reports 1135, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Chen, Dianyu & Hu, Xiaotao & Duan, Xingwu & Yang, Daxin & Wang, Youke & Wang, Xing & Saifullah, Muhammad, 2024. "Improving canopy transpiration model performance by considering concurrent hot and dry conditions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    5. Emanuele Bevacqua & Laura Suarez-Gutierrez & Aglaé Jézéquel & Flavio Lehner & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou & Jakob Zscheischler, 2023. "Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Mahshid Ghanbari & Mazdak Arabi & Matei Georgescu & Ashley M. Broadbent, 2023. "The role of climate change and urban development on compound dry-hot extremes across US cities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Michael M. Santos & Ana Vaz Ferreira & João C. G. Lanzinha, 2023. "The Possibilities of Capturing Rainwater and Reducing the Impact of Floods: A Proposal for the City of Beira, Mozambique," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-17, January.
    8. Fengchun Ye & Pinya Wang & Yang Yang & Lili Ren & Jianping Tang & Hong Liao, 2025. "Anthropogenic forcing dominates changes in compound long-duration dry and heat extremes in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(2), pages 1-19, February.
    9. Yan He & Yanxia Zhao & Shao Sun & Jiayi Fang & Yi Zhang & Qing Sun & Li Liu & Yihong Duan & Xiaokang Hu & Peijun Shi, 2024. "Global warming determines future increase in compound dry and hot days within wheat growing seasons worldwide," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(4), pages 1-22, April.
    10. Soledad Collazo & Mariana Barrucand & Matilde Rusticucci, 2023. "Hot and dry compound events in South America: present climate and future projections, and their association with the Pacific Ocean," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 299-323, October.

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