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Pressure over Stock: Explaining REDD+ Siting and Management in Brazil

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  • Thiago Gil
  • Wesley Mendes da Silva

Abstract

The Amazon remains a climate cornerstone, yet deforestation pressures persist and the role of carbon projects in mitigating those pressures is contested. We assemble a municipality-level panel for the Brazilian Amazon by harmonizing land-cover classifications, deforestation indicators, municipal geometries, and the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) registry of REDD+ projects. Spatial structure is characterized with Moran’s I and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA); environmental profiles are synthesized via PCA-assisted hierarchical clustering. To explain where projects occur, we estimate standard and Firth bias-reduced logistic regressions with standardized predictors reflecting pressure (recent deforestation) and stock (remaining forest cover). Projects concentrate both in well-preserved forest clusters and along livestock/agriculture conversion frontiers, indicating a bimodal geography consistent with preventive and reactive logics. Across specifications, recent deforestation share is the only consistent, statistically significant predictor of siting; a one-standard-deviation increase raises the odds of REDD+ presence by about 50% (OR ≈ 1.5) in the Firth model, while simple“more forest, more projects†patterns weaken once recent clearing is controlled for. We discuss implications for interpreting siting through a transparent pressure-stock lens (as an interpretive, not prescriptive, tool), and we note limitations alongside extensions using spatial logit/probit, improved entity resolution, and quasi-experimental checks for impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Thiago Gil & Wesley Mendes da Silva, 2025. "Pressure over Stock: Explaining REDD+ Siting and Management in Brazil," Environmental Management and Sustainable Development, Macrothink Institute, vol. 14(2), pages 108-142, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:mth:emsd88:v:14:y:2025:i:2:p:108-142
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Börner, Jan & Wunder, Sven & Wertz-Kanounnikoff, Sheila & Tito, Marcos Rügnitz & Pereira, Ligia & Nascimento, Nathalia, 2010. "Direct conservation payments in the Brazilian Amazon: Scope and equity implications," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(6), pages 1272-1282, April.
    2. Coelho Prates , Rodolfo & Bacha, Carlos José Caetano, 2011. "Os processos de desenvolvimento e desmatamento da Amazônia," Revista Economia e Sociedade, Instituto de Economia, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), vol. 43, pages 1-36, December.
    3. repec:euc:ancoec:v:43:y:2011:p:601-636 is not listed on IDEAS
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    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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