IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mth/bmsmti/v17y2026i1p199-219.html

The Impact of Population Aging on China's Carbon Emissions: The Moderating Effect of Green Technology Innovation

Author

Listed:
  • Xuke Li
  • Izati Binti Zull Kepili Ema
  • Zhilin Chen

Abstract

Against the backdrop of China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, population aging and green technology innovation have become key factors influencing carbon emissions. This study investigates the impact of population aging on carbon emissions using a fixed-effects model with panel data from 30 Chinese provinces for 2015–2024. To address endogeneity, we employ 2SLS with lagged population aging as the instrumental variable. Results show that population aging significantly reduces carbon emissions. Green technology innovation strengthens this reduction effect. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the mitigation effect of aging is significant only in developed and low-aging regions, while in deeply aging regions, carbon reduction effects may be offset by rising energy demand. These findings provide empirical implications for formulating differentiated low-carbon policies under population aging and green transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Xuke Li & Izati Binti Zull Kepili Ema & Zhilin Chen, 2026. "The Impact of Population Aging on China's Carbon Emissions: The Moderating Effect of Green Technology Innovation," Business Management and Strategy, Macrothink Institute, vol. 17(1), pages 199-219, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mth:bmsmti:v:17:y:2026:i:1:p:199-219
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/bms/article/download/23711/18222
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/bms/article/view/23711
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen Bai & Xiaoyan Lei, 2020. "New trends in population aging and challenges for China’s sustainable development," China Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 3-23, January.
    2. Bingying Ma & Seiichi Ogata, 2024. "Impact of Urbanization on Carbon Dioxide Emissions—Evidence from 136 Countries and Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-18, September.
    3. Siha Lee & Kegon Teng Kok Tan, 2023. "Bequest Motives and the Social Security Notch," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 888-914, December.
    4. Zhang, Yimeng & Wang, Feng & Zhang, Bing, 2023. "The impacts of household structure transitions on household carbon emissions in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    5. Qimeng Cai, 2024. "Public service level and human development in the context of digitalization," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 26(3), pages 1103-1119, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pashchenko, Svetlana & Porapakkarm, Ponpoje, 2020. "Saving Motives over the Life-Cycle," MPRA Paper 100208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Huang, Liqiao & Yoshida, Yoshikuni & Li, Yuan & Cheng, Nan & Xue, Jinjun & Long, Yin, 2024. "Sustainable lifestyle: Quantification and determining factors analysis of household carbon footprints in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    3. Chen Wu & Yang Cao & Hao Xu, 2025. "How Population Aging Drives Labor Productivity: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-28, May.
    4. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones & Rory McGee, 2021. "Why Do Couples and Singles Save During Retirement?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 21(09), pages 1-65, May.
    5. Yang, Kaitong & Wu, Jun & Li, Ling & Mi, Zhifu & Yang, Junai & Tang, Ling, 2025. "Impact of household size and structure on carbon emissions in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 9-19.
    6. Tamimi Nabil & Sebastianelli Rose & Rajan Murli & Rocco Vincent, 2024. "Revisiting the 4% Withdrawal Rule Using Monte Carlo Simulations with Random Market Declines," Financial Planning Research Journal, Paradigm, vol. 10(1), pages 1-18.
    7. Haifeng Yang & Guofang Zhai & Yifu Ge & Tong Jiang & Buda Su, 2025. "Spatial–Temporal Difference of Urban Carbon Budget and Carbon Compensation Optimization Partition from the Perspective of Spatial Planning," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-19, February.
    8. Wang, Yueying & Liu, Qinming, 2024. "Examining factors driving household carbon emissions from elderly families—Evidence from Japan," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Yuxue Zhang & Rui Wang & Xingyuan Yang & He Zhang, 2023. "Can China Achieve Its Carbon Emission Peak Target? Empirical Evidence from City-Scale Driving Factors and Emission Reduction Strategies," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, May.
    10. Middlemiss, Lucie & Okushima, Shinichiro & Kilian, Lena & Rainard, Mathilde & Büchs, Milena & Owen, Anne, 2026. "Aging alone: a twin threat to decarbonisation and energy vulnerability in Japan and UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    11. Shen, Yongchang & Ma, Jinglong & Chen, Xue-Li & Wang, Yihong & Song, Malin, 2026. "Uncovering carbon reduction Potential: How does consumption structure upgrading influence household carbon emissions? Evidence from CFPS microdata," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 209(PB).
    12. Xiyue Yang & Shixiong Cheng & Mahmood Ahmad, 2025. "Assessing the nonlinear impact of population aging on energy footprint: From the perspective of labor productivity and high‐quality economic development," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 3319-3353, November.
    13. Tingting Li & Hongwei Lu & Qiyou Luo & Guojing Li & Mingjie Gao, 2024. "The Impact of Rural Population Aging on Agricultural Cropping Structure: Evidence from China’s Provinces," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, April.
    14. Xu, Da & Shang, Yunfeng & Yang, Qin & Chen, Hui, 2023. "Population aging and eco-tourism efficiency: Ways to promote green recovery," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-9.
    15. Yue Li & Qingyu Hu & Guilan Xie & Gong Chen, 2023. "Prediction of the Health Status of Older Adults Using Oversampling and Neural Network," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-33, December.
    16. Hui Xiao & Can Liu & Fangmiao Hou & Hao Liu, 2025. "Impact of subsidy on the new type of forestry operating entity's input: Moderating effect of the rising labor cost," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 3550-3566, November.
    17. Yifan Liang & Nur Syazwani Mazlan & Azali Bin Mohamed & Nor Yasmin Binti Mhd Bani & Bufan Liang, 2023. "Regional impact of aging population on economic development in China: Evidence from panel threshold regression (PTR)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(3), pages 1-21, March.
    18. Xiang-Yi Ma & Yi-Fan Xu & Qian Sun & Wen-Jun Liu & Wei Qi, 2024. "Contributing to Carbon Neutrality Targets: A Scenario Simulation and Pattern Optimization of Land Use in Shandong Province Based on the PLUS Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-24, June.
    19. Wu, Chun & Liu, Zhao & Tan-Soo, Jie-Sheng, 2026. "Mitigating carbon emissions in an aging society: The role of generational shifts in household carbon footprints," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    20. Chen, Zhenni & Zhang, Zengkai & Feng, Tong & Liu, Diyi, 2023. "What drives the temporal dynamics and spatial differences of urban and rural household emissions in China?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mth:bmsmti:v:17:y:2026:i:1:p:199-219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Technical Support Office The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Technical Support Office to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/bms .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.