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Explaining Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A logit model on the Turkish data (1984-2001)

  • Mete Feridun

    ()

    (Cyprus International University Nicosia, Cyprus.)

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    This article aims at explaining the financial crises Turkey experienced in the last decade through a random effects logit model which incorporates 26 macroeconomic, political, and financial sector variables. Evidence emerges that the only significant variablesare current account/GDP, fiscal balance/GDP, GDP per capita, national savings growth, foreign exchange reserves, terms of trade, stock prices, and import growth. Results indicate that all variables have expected signs with the exception of import growth.

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    Article provided by Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics in its journal Lahore Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 10 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 1 (Jan-Jun)
    Pages: 33-47

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    Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:10:y:2005:i:1:p:33-47
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    1. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
    2. Demetriades, Panicos O. & Hussein, Khaled A., 1996. "Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 387-411, December.
    3. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    6. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises; Evidence From Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Ozkan, F Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 510-19, March.
    10. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    11. Y?lmaz Akyüz & Korkut Boratav, 2002. "The Making Of The Turkish Financial Crisis," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 158, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
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