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Költségvetési fenntarthatóság a koronavírus-járvány után. A visegrádi országok adósságdinamikájuk tükrében
[Fiscal sustainability based on debt-dynamics: evidence from the Visegrad countries after COVID-19]

Author

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  • Sávai, Marianna

Abstract

A 2019-2021-es koronavírus-járvány példátlan kihívások elé állította a visegrádi országokat is, jelentősen megterhelve költségvetéseiket. Jelen tanulmány azt vizsgálja, hogy a világjárvány okozta kiadások eltérítették-e őket korábbi költségvetési pályájuktól. A vizsgálat különösen érdekes helyzetképet mutat az új uniós költségvetésiszabály-módosítások bevezetése előtti adatok alapján leírható folyamatokról. Különböző időtávokon értékeljük a GDP-arányos államadósság dinamikáját, figyelembe véve a szükséges elsődleges egyenlegeket és a gazdasági növekedést. A módszertan a dinamikus tag és az elsődleges költségvetési rés elemzésére épül, lehetővé téve a költségvetési politika fenntarthatóságának értékelését. Az eredmények szerint Csehország kivételével a visegrádi országok államadósságát nem veszélyezteti a reálkamat és a gazdasági növekedés közötti rés alakulása. Magyarország esetében megállapítható, hogy a rövid távú adósságcsökkentés nagyobb kiigazítást igényel, míg hosszabb távon mérssékeltebb elsődleges többlet is elegendő lehet.

Suggested Citation

  • Sávai, Marianna, 2025. "Költségvetési fenntarthatóság a koronavírus-járvány után. A visegrádi országok adósságdinamikájuk tükrében [Fiscal sustainability based on debt-dynamics: evidence from the Visegrad countries after ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 757-776.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:2265
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2025.7-8.757
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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