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Public Debt and r - g at Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Weicheng Lian
  • Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
  • Ursula Wiriadinata

Abstract

As interest rate-growth differentials (r-g) turned negative in many countries, governments consider pursuing fiscal expansion and the potential risks involved. Using a large sample of advanced and emerging economies, our analysis suggests that high public debts can lead to adverse future r-g dynamics. Specifically, countries with higher initial public debt experience (i) a shorter duration of negative r-g episodes and a higher probability of reversal, (ii) higher average r-g, and (iii) a more right-skewed r-g distribution, that implies higher down-side risks. Furthermore, high-debt countries experience larger increases in interest rates in response to (iv) an unexpected decline in domestic output and (v) an increase of global volatility. Results are stronger when public debts are denominated in foreign currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Weicheng Lian & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Ursula Wiriadinata, 2020. "Public Debt and r - g at Risk," IMF Working Papers 2020/137, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/137
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Schilirò, Daniele, 2020. "COVID-19 crisis and the public debt issue:The case of Italy," MPRA Paper 103997, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2020.
    2. Di Serio, Mario & Fragetta, Matteo & Melina, Giovanni, 2021. "The impact of r-g on Euro-Area government spending multipliers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Bev Dahlby & Ergete Ferede, 2023. "The Interplay of Interest Rates and Debt-Financed Government Spending," EconPol Policy Brief 47, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. Togan Eğrican, Aslı & Caner, Selçuk & Togan, Sübidey, 2022. "Reforming public debt governance in Turkey to reach debt sustainability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 1057-1076.
    5. Fabrizio Casalin & Floriana Cerniglia & Enzo Dia, 2021. "Stock-flow adjustments and interest costs in public debt dynamics," CRANEC - Working Papers del Centro di Ricerche in Analisi economica e sviluppo economico internazionale crn2102, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Centro di Ricerche in Analisi economica e sviluppo economico internazionale (CRANEC).
    6. Czeczeli, Vivien, 2023. "Az államadósság fenntarthatósága alacsony kamatkörnyezetben [The sustainability of public debt in a low interest rate environment]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1361-1388.
    7. Jussi Lindgren, 2021. "Examination of Interest-Growth Differentials and the Risk of Sovereign Insolvency," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, April.
    8. Debrun, Xavier & Masuch, Klaus & Ferrero, Guiseppe & Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Ferdinandusse, Marien & von Thadden, Leopold & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Alloza, Mario & Derouen, Chloé & Bańkowski, Krzyszto, 2021. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 273, European Central Bank.
    9. Dubravko Mihaljek, 2021. "Interactions between fiscal and monetary policies: a brief history of a long relationship," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 419-432.
    10. K. S. Jomo & Anis Chowdhury, 2020. "COVID-19 Pandemic Recession and Recovery," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 63(2), pages 226-237, December.
    11. Martin Werding, 2021. "Fiscal Sustainability and Low Interest Rates: A Note," CESifo Working Paper Series 8861, CESifo.
    12. Staffa, Ruben, 2022. "The effects of sovereign risk: A high frequency identification based on news ticker data," IWH Discussion Papers 8/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    13. Rogoff, Kenneth, 2021. "Fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the great pause," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 783-793.

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