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Egyenes vagy S alakú a Jánossy-féle trendvonal?. Hosszú távú egyensúlyi állapot Maddison adatai és az új növekedéselmélet tükrében
[A simple or an S-shaped Jánossy trend?. A long-term state of equilibrium in the light of Maddisons data and the new growth theory]

  • Tarján, Tamás
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    A technológiakövető országok a technológiavezetők trendjével normált, hosszú távú növekedési pályája S alakú pályát követ. Több olyan növekedési modellt sikerült megalkotni, amelyek S alakú pályán érik el hosszú távú egyensúlyi (steady state) állapotukat, de mindezt naiv várakozású vagy rövidlátó fogyasztásoptimalizálással, nem pedig a több mint nyolc évtizede ismert és legelterjedtebb Ramsey-féle fogyasztásoptimalizálás módszerével. Jelen cikk a Ramsey-féle fogyasztásoptimalizálással kapcsolatban két új eredményt tartalmaz. Bebizonyítja, hogy 1. a Ramsey-féle optimalizálás az Aghion-Howitt-féle aggregált termelékenységi paraméterszabályozással párosítva nem képes az S alakú pálya modellezésére, 2. az Aghion-Howitt-féle aggregált szabályozás módszertani elvén alapuló, de a szabályozásba a tőkét is számba vevő, kissé módosított Aghion-Howitt-féle szabályozás képes az S alakú tranzíciós dinamika modellezésére. Journal of Economics Literatrure (JEL) kód: B22, C32, E13, O11, O33, O47, N10.

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    Article provided by Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) in its journal Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences).

    Volume (Year): LVIII (2011)
    Issue (Month): 6 ()
    Pages: 552-564

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    Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1249
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    1. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
    2. Howitt, Peter & Aghion, Philippe, 2006. "Appropriate Growth Policy: A Unifying Framework," Scholarly Articles 4554121, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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    5. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
    6. Dumke, Rolf H, 1990. "Reassessing the Wirtschaftswunder: Reconstruction and Postwar Growth in West Germany in an International Context," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(4), pages 451-91, Special I.
    7. Meyer, Dietmar, 1995. "Az új növekedéselmélet
      [The new theory of growth]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 387-398.
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