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Ein Stimmungsindikator für das Schweizer Kreditgewerbe

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Abstract

Der Beitrag des Finanzsektors (Kredit- und Versicherungsgewerbe) zum Schweizer Bruttoinlandprodukt betrug im Jahr 2006 – dem letzten, für das Jahreswerte vorliegen – gut 12%. Das Kreditgewerbe (abgegrenzt gemäss NOGA 65) hat dabei mit 8.9% deutlich mehr Gewicht als das Versicherungsgewerbe (abgegrenzt gemäss NOGA 66) mit 3.4%. Die Wertschöpfung des Kreditgewerbes ist nicht nur gewichtiger, sondern auch wesentlich volatiler als die des Versicherungsgewerbes. Für die Einschätzung des Schweizer Konjunkturverlaufs ist daher ein frühzeitiges Erkennen des Konjunkturverlaufs insbesondere im Kreditgewerbe von Bedeutung. Die KOF hat daher bei der letzten Revision ihres Konjunkturbarometers einen mehrsektoralen Ansatz gewählt, wobei u. a. die Konjunktur des Kreditgewerbes separat modelliert wird. Das Barometer zielt auf einen Vorlauf von zwei Quartalen. Der hier erstmals vorgestellte Stimmungsindikator orientiert sich ebenfalls am Kreditgewerbe. Im Unterschied zum entsprechenden Barometermodul ist der Stimmungsindikator jedoch als Mitlaufindikator konzipiert, und er ist auch nicht auf eine explizite Referenzreihe bezogen.

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  • Michael Graff, 2008. "Ein Stimmungsindikator für das Schweizer Kreditgewerbe," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 2(1), pages 59-70, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:anskof:v:2:y:2008:i:1:p:59-70
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005427569
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    2. Michael Graff, 2006. "Ein multisektoraler Sammelindikator für die Schweizer Konjunktur," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(IV), pages 529-577, December.
    3. Richard Etter & Michael Graff, 2004. "Coincident and Leading Indicators of Manufacturing Industry," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(1), pages 109-131.
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