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A disaggregate stochastic freight transport model for Sweden

Author

Listed:
  • Megersa Abate

    (The World Bank)

  • Inge Vierth

    (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute)

  • Rune Karlsson

    (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute)

  • Gerard Jong

    (University of Leeds
    Significance)

  • Jaap Baak

    (Significance)

Abstract

This paper presents estimation results for models of transport chain and shipment size choice, as well as an implementation of the estimated disaggregate models (for two commodity groups), in the context of the national freight transport model for Sweden. The new model is a disaggregate and stochastic (logit) model, whereas the existing Swedish national model is deterministic. One advantage of the new approach is that it bases the underlying behavior of shippers on a stronger empirical foundation (that is micro-data from the Swedish Commodity Flow Survey, CFS). Another advantage is that it overcomes a well-known disadvantage of deterministic models that lead to implausibly large responses to changes in scenario or policy variables. Although estimation and implementation of aggregate stochastic models were done before, in the context of a national freight transport forecasting model, we think this is the first implementation of disaggregate freight transport chain and shipment size models estimated on choice data for individual shipments, certainly in Europe. We carried out a number of model runs with both versions of the implemented model to compare elasticities and found that transport cost and time elasticities for tonne-km are smaller (in absolute values) in the disaggregate stochastic model than in their deterministic counterparts.

Suggested Citation

  • Megersa Abate & Inge Vierth & Rune Karlsson & Gerard Jong & Jaap Baak, 2019. "A disaggregate stochastic freight transport model for Sweden," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 671-696, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:46:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11116-018-9856-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-018-9856-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Holguín-Veras, José & Kalahasthi, Lokesh & Campbell, Shama & González-Calderón, Carlos A. & (Cara) Wang, Xiaokun, 2021. "Freight mode choice: Results from a nationwide qualitative and quantitative research effort," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 78-120.
    3. Pařil Vilém & Viturka Milan, 2020. "Assessment of Priorities of Construction of High-Speed Rail in the Czech Republic in Terms of Impacts on Internal and External Integration," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 20(2), pages 217-241, June.
    4. Björk, Lisa & Vierth, Inge & Cullinane, Kevin, 2023. "Freight modal shift: A means or an objective in achieving lower emission targets? The case of Sweden," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 125-136.
    5. Raphael Piendl & Martin Koning & François Combes & Gernot Liedtke, 2022. "Building latent segments of goods to improve shipment size modeling: Confirmatory evidence from France," Post-Print hal-04117547, HAL.
    6. Kalahasthi, Lokesh & Holguín-Veras, José & Yushimito, Wilfredo F., 2022. "A freight origin-destination synthesis model with mode choice," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    7. Verena Maria Stockhammer & Sarah Pfoser & Karin Markvica & Jürgen Zajicek & Matthias Prandtstetter, 2021. "Behavioural Biases Distorting the Demand for Environmentally Friendly Freight Transport Modes: An Overview and Potential Measures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-34, October.

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