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How Risk Disciplines Pre-Commitment

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  • Christophe Caron
  • Thierry Lafay

Abstract

This paper studies the entry strategies of firms on risky markets. We focus on markets where demand is affine and cost is linear, moreover, the demand includes a normally distributed random variable. In such a model, we show that the leader's strategy changes with the level of market risk even when firms are risk neutral. Therefore, the availability of future information for a Stackelberg follower has a feedback effect on the leader's strategy. We also show that compared with traditional markets with no risk, the basic trade-off between flexibility and pre-commitment is only slightly changed in the qualitative game where firms are free to choose when to enter the market.
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Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Caron & Thierry Lafay, 2008. "How Risk Disciplines Pre-Commitment," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 205-226, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:65:y:2008:i:3:p:205-226
    DOI: 10.1007/s11238-007-9085-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Esther Hauk & Sjaak Hurkens, 2001. "Secret information acquisition in Cournot markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 18(3), pages 661-681.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8o1o6tag is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Somma, Ernesto, 1999. "The effect of incomplete information about future technological opportunities on pre-emption," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 765-799, August.
    4. Jean-Pierre Ponssard, 1979. "Uncertainty in the demand function, Oligopolistic markets and the strategic role of information," Post-Print hal-00364248, HAL.
    5. Hamilton, Jonathan H. & Slutsky, Steven M., 1990. "Endogenous timing in duopoly games: Stackelberg or cournot equilibria," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 29-46, March.
    6. Head, K. & Mayer, T. & Ries, J., 2000. "Revisiting Oligopolistic Reaction : Are FDI Decisions Strategic Complements?," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 2000.49, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    7. Sadanand, Asha & Sadanand, Venkatraman, 1996. "Firm Scale and the Endogenous Timing of Entry: a Choice between Commitment and Flexibility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 516-530, August.
    8. Saloner, Garth, 1987. "Cournot duopoly with two production periods," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 183-187, June.
    9. McGahan, A. M., 1993. "The effect of incomplete information about demand on preemption," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 327-346, September.
    10. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer & John Ries, 2002. "Revisiting Oligopolistic Reaction: Are Decisions on Foreign Direct Investment Strategic Complements?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 453-472, September.
    11. Giovanni Maggi, 1996. "Endogenous Leadership in a New Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 27(4), pages 641-659, Winter.
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    13. Spencer, Barbara J. & Brander, James A., 1992. "Pre-commitment and flexibility : Applications to oligopoly theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1601-1626, December.
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    15. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-1012, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thierry Lafay, 2011. "A Competitive Duopoly where Information Spillovers can be Mutually Advantageous," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 77(1), pages 79-100.
    2. Attila Tasnádi, 2010. "Quantity-setting games with a dominant firm," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 99(3), pages 251-266, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cournot competition; Stackelberg; preemption; information value; market risk; C73; D43; D81; D83; L13;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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