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How good are supply function equilibrium models: an empirical analysis of the ERCOT balancing market

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  • Ramteen Sioshansi

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  • Shmuel Oren

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Abstract

We present an empirical analysis of a supply function equilibrium model in the Texas spot electricity market. We derive conditions for optimal bidding behavior in a spot market with ex ante bilaterally contracted sales. By estimating costs, we are able to derive a set of ex post-and ex ante-optimal supply functions and use a non-parametric behavioral model to compare our theoretically optimal supply functions to actual offers made. Our results show that with the exception of the largest generators, firms make offers with markups and markdowns far in excess of what a model of profit-maximizing behavior suggests. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Ramteen Sioshansi & Shmuel Oren, 2007. "How good are supply function equilibrium models: an empirical analysis of the ERCOT balancing market," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 1-35, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:regeco:v:31:y:2007:i:1:p:1-35
    DOI: 10.1007/s11149-006-9008-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Holmberg, Pär, 2009. "Numerical calculation of an asymmetric supply function equilibrium with capacity constraints," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(1), pages 285-295, November.
    2. Green, Richard J, 1996. "Increasing Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 205-216, June.
    3. Catherine D. Wolfram, 1999. "Measuring Duopoly Power in the British Electricity Spot Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 805-826, September.
    4. Ross Baldick & Ryan Grant & Edward Kahn, 2004. "Theory and Application of Linear Supply Function Equilibrium in Electricity Markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 143-167, March.
    5. Dae-Wook Kim & Christopher R. Knittel, 2004. "Biases in Static Oligopoly Models? Evidence from the California Electricity Market," NBER Working Papers 10895, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Holmberg, Par, 2008. "Unique supply function equilibrium with capacity constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 148-172, January.
    7. Robert Wilson, 1979. "Auctions of Shares," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 93(4), pages 675-689.
    8. Holmberg, Pär, 2005. "Asymmetric Supply Function Equilibrium with Constant Marginal Costs," Working Paper Series 2005:16, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    9. Green, Richard J & Newbery, David M, 1992. "Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 929-953, October.
    10. Klemperer, Paul D & Meyer, Margaret A, 1989. "Supply Function Equilibria in Oligopoly under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1243-1277, November.
    11. Hurlbut, David & Rogas, Keith & Oren, Shmuel, 2004. "Protecting the Market from "Hockey Stick" Pricing: How the Public Utility Commission of Texas is Dealing with Potential Price Gouging," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 26-33, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Holmberg, Pär & Philpott, Andrew, 2012. "Supply Function Equilibria in Networks with Transport Constraints," Working Paper Series 945, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 10 Aug 2015.
    2. Hach, Daniel & Chyong, Chi Kong & Spinler, Stefan, 2016. "Capacity market design options: A dynamic capacity investment model and a GB case study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 691-705.
    3. Xavier Vives, 2011. "Strategic Supply Function Competition With Private Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1919-1966, November.
    4. Pär Holmberg, 2014. "Pro-competitive rationing in multi-unit auctions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1435, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Willems, Bert & Rumiantseva, Ina & Weigt, Hannes, 2009. "Cournot versus Supply Functions: What does the data tell us?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 38-47, January.
    6. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing & Qu, Xiuli, 2011. "Modeling methods for GenCo bidding strategy optimization in the liberalized electricity spot market–A state-of-the-art review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 4686-4700.
    7. Eva Niesten & Albert Jolink, 2014. "Absence of a market in the Dutch balancing mechanism: European rules versus specific investments," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 71-90, August.
    8. Sebastian Schwenen, 2012. "Strategic Bidding in Multi-unit Auctions with Capacity Constrained Bidders: The New York Capacity Market," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/62, European University Institute.
    9. Holmberg, Pär & Newbery, David & Ralph, Daniel, 2013. "Supply function equilibria: Step functions and continuous representations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(4), pages 1509-1551.
    10. Richard Meade & Seini O’Connor, 2011. "Comparison of Long-term Contracts and Vertical Integration in Decentralized Electricity Markets," Chapters,in: Competition, Contracts and Electricity Markets, chapter 4 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Holmberg, Pär & Newbery, David, 2010. "The supply function equilibrium and its policy implications for wholesale electricity auctions," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 209-226, December.
    12. repec:spr:orspec:v:40:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00291-018-0509-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Pär Holmberg, 2009. "Supply function equilibria of pay-as-bid auctions," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 154-177, October.
    14. Hunt Allcott, 2012. "The Smart Grid, Entry, and Imperfect Competition in Electricity Markets," NBER Working Papers 18071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Bolle, Friedel & Grimm, Veronika & Ockenfels, Axel & del Pozo, Xavier, 2013. "An experiment on supply function competition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 170-185.
    16. repec:eee:jetheo:v:175:y:2018:i:c:p:318-341 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:spr:joptap:v:152:y:2012:i:1:d:10.1007_s10957-011-9879-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Bunn, Derek & Koc, Veli & Sapio, Alessandro, 2015. "Resource externalities and the persistence of heterogeneous pricing behavior in an energy commodity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 265-275.
    19. Tsitsiklis, John N. & Xu, Yunjian, 2015. "Pricing of fluctuations in electricity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(1), pages 199-208.
    20. Knittel, Christopher R & Metaxoglou, Konstantinos, 2008. "Diagnosing Unilateral Market Power in Electricity Reserves Market," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt14q6c0mk, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    21. Alexander Vasin & Marina Dolmatova & Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber, 2016. "Supply function equilibria for uniform price auction in oligopolistic markets," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 24(4), pages 819-831, December.
    22. Pär Holmberg & Andy Philpott, 2014. "Supply function equilibria in transportation networks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1421, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    23. Majid Motamedi & Shahram Moeeni & Salman Gharakhani & Iman Keyfarokhi, 2014. "The Behavior of Iranian Restructured Electricity Market in Supply Function Equilibrium Framework," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(1), pages 178-191, January.
    24. Edward Anderson & Pär Holmberg, 2015. "Price Instability in Multi-Unit Auctions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1538, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    25. Sebastian Schwenen, 2015. "Strategic bidding in multi-unit auctions with capacity constrained bidders: the New York capacity market," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(4), pages 730-750, October.

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