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Tax vs. Debt Management Under Entitlement Spending: a Multicountry Study

Author

Listed:
  • Floriana Cerniglia

    (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

  • Enzo Dia

    (Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca)

  • Andrew Hughes Hallett

    (University of London
    George Mason University)

Abstract

In this paper we study the taxes vs. debt choice for public funding when spending is in large part predictable due to entitlement programs, but the necessary fiscal corrections may not be instantly and indefinitely elastic as usually assumed. We study fiscal behavior in a large sample of countries to determine what fiscal regimes have been used in practice, and what they reveal about the trade-off between raising taxes vs. issuing debt. Unsurprisingly, we find that fiscal discipline and the aims of fiscal rules have varied over the past 50 years. Discipline has generally weakened and there has been a greater tendency to use debt. But governments are no less forward looking than they were. Perhaps more surprising, the high debt countries were more disciplined than low debt economies—but with worse outcomes because of their poor starting positions and more persistent public spending. The low debt countries have exploited their stronger initial position to allow less discipline; a “resting on one’s laurels” approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Floriana Cerniglia & Enzo Dia & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2019. "Tax vs. Debt Management Under Entitlement Spending: a Multicountry Study," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 425-443, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:30:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11079-018-9517-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-018-9517-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Casalin, Fabrizio & Dia, Enzo & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 2020. "Public debt dynamics with tax revenue constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 501-515.
    2. Afonso, António & Coelho, José Carlos, 2023. "Public finances solvency in the Euro Area," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 642-657.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sustainable public debt; Fiscal targets; Tax smoothing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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